--- title: "Real Deal case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Real Deal ($2.67) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.85% from 9 items with odds, observed 91.22% over 33.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/real-deal rendered: 2026-11-11T18:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Real Deal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/real-deal) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Real Deal A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/real-deal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/real-deal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/real-deal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/real-deal?window=all) Price · $2.67 · 3.82 coins Advertised RTP · 90.85% · EV $2.43 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.22% · 33.4K openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.63% ±4.23 3,853 openings 7 days · 90.62% ±1.59 27.9K openings 30 days · 91.22% ±1.46 33.4K openings since tracking started · 91.22% ±1.46 33.4K openings 88.5% 93.5% 98.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/real-deal?window=24h) | 3,853 | 93.63% ±4.23 | +1.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/real-deal?window=7d) | 27.9K | 90.62% ±1.59 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/real-deal) | 33.4K | 91.22% ±1.46 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/real-deal?window=all) | 33.4K | 91.22% ±1.46 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $102 146 coins | 0.4% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.20× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $18.16 25.94 coins | 9.3% | 421 | 417.3 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $7.08 10.11 coins | 58.3% | 6,685 | 6677.0 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $5.52 7.89 coins | 20.5% | 3,046 | 3004.7 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $3.91 5.58 coins | 0.4% | 78 | 83.5 | 0.93× | | [FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.92 4.17 coins | 10.8% | 2,990 | 3004.7 | 1.00× | | [G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 6,796 | 6677.0 | 1.02× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 20.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 6,678 | 6840.6 | 0.98× | | [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 6,687 | 6677.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=real-deal) [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $2.67 3.82 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $2.67 3.82 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) Hidden $2.67 3.82 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $2.67 3.82 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) [💎❤⚡Lpx\[Z\]⚡❤💎](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%92%8E%E2%9D%A4%E2%9A%A1Lpx%5BZ%5D%E2%9A%A1%E2%9D%A4%F0%9F%92%8E) $2.67 3.82 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Desert Eagle | Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.67 3.82 coins $7.08 10.11 coins 2.65x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $2.67 3.82 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) Hidden $2.67 3.82 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [Mitch Trubisky](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mitch%20Trubisky) $2.67 3.82 coins $5.52 7.89 coins 2.07x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) Hidden $2.67 3.82 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $2.67 | 90.85% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.67 | 90.90% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.44 | 90.81% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.44 | 90.82% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 1.3% restricted 38.0% mil spec 0.3% consumer 60.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.85 on average: an expected loss of $9.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt