--- title: "Reaper case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Reaper ($103.00) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 83.23% over 49 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reaper rendered: 2026-11-11T14:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Reaper](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reaper) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Reaper A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reaper?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reaper?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reaper) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reaper?window=all) Price · $103.00 · 147 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $93.63 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.23% · 49 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 5 openings · below min 7 days · 49 openings · below min 30 days · 49 openings · below min since tracking started · 49 openings · below min -0.5% 94.3% 189.0% **Small sample.** 49 openings and 8.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reaper?window=24h) | 5 | 90.06% ±98.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reaper?window=7d) | 49 | 83.23% ±31.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reaper) | 49 | 83.23% ±31.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reaper?window=all) | 49 | 83.23% ±31.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 49 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 417 | $1,131 1,615 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $511 730 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $485 693 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $344 492 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 67 | $287 410 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $270 386 coins | 17.3% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.02× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $251 359 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $188 269 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 20.0% | $97.30 139 coins | 20.8% | 11 | 9.8 | 1.12× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $96.60 138 coins | 7.2% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.17× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $84.00 120 coins | 5.4% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.04× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $75.60 108 coins | 7.3% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $8.51 12.16 coins | 1.8% | 10 | 9.8 | 1.02× | | [P90 \| Schematic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $4.47 6.38 coins | 1.0% | 12 | 9.8 | 1.22× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $103 147 coins $1,146 1,637 coins 11.14x 2026-11-05 00:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=reaper) [P90 | Schematic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-minimal-wear) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $103 147 coins $4.47 6.38 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 16:24 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 147 coins $84.00 120 coins 0.82x 2026-11-10 16:24 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 147 coins $96.60 138 coins 0.94x 2026-11-10 16:24 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $103 147 coins $270 386 coins 2.62x 2026-11-10 16:24 UTC [Nova | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) Hidden $103 147 coins $8.51 12.16 coins 0.08x 2026-11-10 16:24 UTC [P90 | Schematic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 147 coins $5.01 7.15 coins 0.05x 2026-11-08 01:26 UTC [P90 | Schematic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 147 coins $5.01 7.15 coins 0.05x 2026-11-08 01:26 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $103 147 coins $271 387 coins 2.63x 2026-11-08 01:26 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) [Luxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Luxi) $103 147 coins $95.20 136 coins 0.93x 2026-11-08 01:26 UTC [P90 | Schematic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 147 coins $5.01 7.15 coins 0.05x 2026-11-06 13:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $103 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $103 | 90.91% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $103 | 90.91% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 56.8% legendary 0.7% classified 22.5% mil spec 20.0% best hit $1,146 (11.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt