---
title: "Recoil case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Recoil ($6.42) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.87% from 24 items with odds, observed 90.66% over 15.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recoil
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Recoil](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recoil)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Recoil

A case on CSGORoll (gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recoil?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recoil?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recoil) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recoil?window=all)

Price · $6.42 · 9.17 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.87% · EV $5.83 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.66% · 15.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 10.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.38% ±13.16 2,395 openings

7 days · 91.14% ±5.56 13.8K openings

30 days · 90.66% ±5.18 15.9K openings

since tracking started · 90.66% ±5.18 15.9K openings

74.5% 88.3% 102.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recoil?window=24h) | 2,395 | 88.38% ±13.2 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recoil?window=7d) | 13.8K | 91.14% ±5.56 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recoil) | 15.9K | 90.66% ±5.18 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recoil?window=all) | 15.9K | 90.66% ±5.18 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $723 1,033 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $676 966 coins | 1.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.26× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $517 739 coins | 0.9% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.51× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $455 650 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $370 529 coins | 2.5% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.26× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $302 432 coins | 1.0% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $281 401 coins | 1.0% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $264 377 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $228 326 coins | 0.8% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $171 244 coins | 2.9% | 16 | 15.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $143 204 coins | 4.9% | 28 | 31.8 | 0.88× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $108 154 coins | 3.7% | 37 | 31.8 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $103 147 coins | 5.3% | 49 | 47.7 | 1.03× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $63.18 90.26 coins | 3.2% | 45 | 47.7 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $60.96 87.08 coins | 5.2% | 61 | 79.5 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $59.68 85.26 coins | 5.1% | 82 | 79.5 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $44.77 63.95 coins | 5.8% | 117 | 119.3 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $22.81 32.59 coins | 3.9% | 147 | 159.1 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $21.23 30.33 coins | 14.6% | 615 | 636.4 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $17.23 24.61 coins | 5.9% | 326 | 318.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $13.52 19.31 coins | 4.6% | 330 | 318.2 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $12.61 18.02 coins | 6.5% | 500 | 477.3 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 40.0% | $1.60 2.29 coins | 11.0% | 6,269 | 6364.0 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Downtown (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-minimal-wear) | 45.0% | $0.97 1.39 coins | 7.5% | 7,262 | 7159.5 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.52 9.32 coins $750 1,071 coins 114.9x 2026-11-04 22:32 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.52 9.32 coins $726 1,037 coins 111.3x 2026-11-06 21:00 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-minimal-wear) [Joseph](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Joseph) $6.41 9.15 coins $676 966 coins 105.6x 2026-11-08 22:39 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $6.52 9.32 coins $547 782 coins 83.91x 2026-11-08 07:38 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $6.52 9.32 coins $547 782 coins 83.91x 2026-11-06 03:56 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $6.52 9.32 coins $547 782 coins 83.91x 2026-11-04 14:48 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) [Hosipa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hosipa) $6.42 9.17 coins $517 739 coins 80.59x 2026-11-09 17:06 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) [vice.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/vice.) $6.52 9.32 coins $466 666 coins 71.46x 2026-11-07 00:14 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $6.52 9.32 coins $392 560 coins 60.09x 2026-11-08 13:24 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $6.52 9.32 coins $392 560 coins 60.09x 2026-11-07 20:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=recoil)

[StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.42 9.17 coins $0.97 1.39 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.42 9.17 coins $0.97 1.39 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-minimal-wear) [malakasohn](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/malakasohn) $6.42 9.17 coins $0.97 1.39 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.42 9.17 coins $0.97 1.39 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-minimal-wear) [Terroristi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Terroristi) $6.42 9.17 coins $0.97 1.39 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.42 9.17 coins $0.97 1.39 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.42 9.17 coins $21.23 30.33 coins 3.31x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.42 9.17 coins $21.23 30.33 coins 3.31x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.42 9.17 coins $12.61 18.02 coins 1.97x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $6.42 9.17 coins $12.61 18.02 coins 1.97x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.42 | 90.87% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.47 | 90.94% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.52 | 90.90% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.9% legendary 0.0% covert 5.5% Ancient 0.5% classified 8.0% mil spec 40.0% restricted 45.0% best hit $750 (114.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.87 on average: an expected loss of $9.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt