---
title: "Record case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Record ($81.66) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 174.28% over 367 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/record
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Record](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/record)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Record

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/record?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/record?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/record) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/record?window=all)

Price · $81.66 · 117 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $74.23 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 174.28% · 367 openings, odds method

Variance · 30.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 22 openings · below min

7 days · 178.92% ±57.79 346 openings

30 days · 174.28% ±56.10 367 openings

since tracking started · 174.28% ±56.10 367 openings

90.5% 378.3% 666.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.91% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (118.18% – 230.38%, 367 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/record?window=24h) | 22 | 434.60% ±231.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/record?window=7d) | 346 | 178.92% ±57.8 | +3.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/record) | 367 | 174.28% ±56.1 | +2.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/record?window=all) | 367 | 174.28% ±56.1 | +2.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 367 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $12K 17,180 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 7.1% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $8,057 11,510 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $7,000 10,000 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,667 3,810 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,988 2,840 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,552 2,217 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,474 2,105 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,136 1,623 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $587 838 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $551 787 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $474 677 coins | 6.4% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.36× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $435 622 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $414 592 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.56× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $390 557 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $328 469 coins | 6.6% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.45× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 182 | $299 427 coins | 2.2% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.49× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 28 | $228 326 coins | 10.9% | 22 | 13.0 | 1.69× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $218 311 coins | 23.5% | 34 | 29.4 | 1.16× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $92.40 132 coins | 11.2% | 34 | 33.0 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.32 0.45 coins | 0.1% | 91 | 91.8 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aerial-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.24 0.35 coins | 0.1% | 90 | 91.8 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.06 0.08 coins | 0.0% | 74 | 91.8 | 0.81× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $83.03 119 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 130.4x 2026-11-07 08:54 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $83.03 119 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 130.4x 2026-11-07 02:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $81.66 117 coins $7,000 10,000 coins 85.73x 2026-11-10 22:42 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $83.03 119 coins $1,415 2,022 coins 17.05x 2026-11-07 02:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=record)

[Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-battle-scarred) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $81.66 117 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:49 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.66 117 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:49 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.66 117 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:49 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.66 117 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aerial-field-tested) Hidden $81.66 117 coins $0.24 0.35 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:44 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) Hidden $81.66 117 coins $0.32 0.45 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:44 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.66 117 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:44 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.66 117 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:44 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.66 117 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:44 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) [Michał](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Micha%C5%82) $81.66 117 coins $0.32 0.45 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $81.66 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $81.65 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $81.64 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $83.03 | 90.91% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 23.5% contraband 0.1% epic 0.1% legendary 0.2% classified 1.0% mil spec 25.0% milspec 25.0% common 25.0% best hit $10.8K (130.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt