--- title: "Recycle case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Recycle ($16.45) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 18 items with odds, observed 86.16% over 1,442 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recycle rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Recycle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recycle) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Recycle A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recycle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recycle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recycle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recycle?window=all) Price · $16.45 · 23.5 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $14.96 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.16% · 1,442 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 40.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.45% ±17.18 221 openings 7 days · 85.30% ±7.41 1,206 openings 30 days · 86.16% ±6.78 1,442 openings since tracking started · 86.16% ±6.78 1,442 openings 69.5% 87.5% 105.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recycle?window=24h) | 221 | 87.45% ±17.2 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recycle?window=7d) | 1,206 | 85.30% ±7.41 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recycle) | 1,442 | 86.16% ±6.78 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/recycle?window=all) | 1,442 | 86.16% ±6.78 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,442 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $207 295 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $167 239 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $146 208 coins | 4.9% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $115 165 coins | 3.9% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.55× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $108 154 coins | 2.2% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $106 152 coins | 3.6% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.25× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $98.00 140 coins | 3.3% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $89.60 128 coins | 3.0% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.69× | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $85.40 122 coins | 2.9% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-1) | 1 in 250 | $64.64 92.34 coins | 1.7% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $51.07 72.95 coins | 3.4% | 17 | 14.4 | 1.18× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $50.96 72.8 coins | 1.7% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $24.88 35.55 coins | 4.2% | 23 | 36.1 | 0.64× | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $24.75 35.35 coins | 1.7% | 14 | 14.4 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $18.12 25.89 coins | 1.2% | 23 | 14.4 | 1.60× | | [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) | 30.0% | $13.67 19.53 coins | 27.4% | 419 | 432.6 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) | 30.0% | $11.44 16.34 coins | 22.9% | 463 | 432.6 | 1.07× | | [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) | 30.0% | $4.14 5.92 coins | 8.3% | 429 | 432.6 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=recycle) [MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) Hidden $16.45 23.5 coins $4.14 5.92 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) Hidden $16.45 23.5 coins $4.14 5.92 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) Hidden $16.45 23.5 coins $13.67 19.53 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $16.45 23.5 coins $11.44 16.34 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $16.45 23.5 coins $4.14 5.92 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) Hidden $16.45 23.5 coins $11.44 16.34 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) Hidden $16.45 23.5 coins $13.67 19.53 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) Hidden $16.45 23.5 coins $11.44 16.34 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $16.45 23.5 coins $4.14 5.92 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) Hidden $16.45 23.5 coins $4.14 5.92 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.45 | 90.92% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.41 | 90.89% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.42 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.2% Ancient 0.3% extraordinary 0.5% classified 3.5% restricted 60.5% uncommon 1.0% rare 1.0% consumer 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt