--- title: "Red Alert case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Red Alert ($52.30) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 98.83% over 3,302 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-alert rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Red Alert](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-alert) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Red Alert A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-alert?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-alert?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-alert) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-alert?window=all) Price · $52.30 · 74.71 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $47.54 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.83% · 3,302 openings, odds method Variance · 42.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 209 openings · below min 7 days · 98.51% ±24.06 2,792 openings 30 days · 98.83% ±22.12 3,302 openings since tracking started · 98.83% ±22.12 3,302 openings 74.0% 176.0% 278.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-alert?window=24h) | 209 | 189.28% ±88.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-alert?window=7d) | 2,792 | 98.51% ±24.1 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-alert) | 3,302 | 98.83% ±22.1 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-alert?window=all) | 3,302 | 98.83% ±22.1 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,302 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $4,305 6,150 coins | 45.3% | 22 | 16.5 | 1.33× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 16.1% | 12 | 16.5 | 0.73× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,301 1,859 coins | 13.7% | 12 | 16.5 | 0.73× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $751 1,073 coins | 7.9% | 20 | 16.5 | 1.21× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $420 600 coins | 4.4% | 13 | 16.5 | 0.79× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $386 551 coins | 4.1% | 18 | 16.5 | 1.09× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $348 497 coins | 3.7% | 17 | 16.5 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $126 180 coins | 1.3% | 17 | 16.5 | 1.03× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $86.10 123 coins | 0.9% | 23 | 16.5 | 1.39× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $65.35 93.35 coins | 0.7% | 24 | 16.5 | 1.45× | | [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 31.0% | $1.53 2.18 coins | 1.0% | 1,038 | 1023.6 | 1.01× | | [Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 32.0% | $0.78 1.12 coins | 0.5% | 1,048 | 1056.6 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 32.0% | $0.73 1.05 coins | 0.5% | 1,038 | 1056.6 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 82.32x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $52.30 74.71 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 82.32x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) [Aimbot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Aimbot) $52.30 74.71 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 82.32x 2026-11-11 03:50 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 82.32x 2026-11-10 12:29 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 82.32x 2026-11-09 20:25 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 82.32x 2026-11-09 13:00 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $52.32 74.75 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 82.27x 2026-11-08 18:23 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) [Art](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Art) $52.49 74.99 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 82.01x 2026-11-07 23:57 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $52.49 74.99 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 82.01x 2026-11-07 05:42 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $52.49 74.99 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 82.01x 2026-11-06 23:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=red-alert) [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $0.78 1.12 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $0.78 1.12 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $0.78 1.12 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) [Bismillah Alrahim Alraham](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Bismillah%20Alrahim%20Alraham) $52.30 74.71 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.30 74.71 coins $0.78 1.12 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $52.30 | 90.91% | 13 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $52.30 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $52.32 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $52.32 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $52.50 | 90.90% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $52.49 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 1.0% covert 3.0% restricted 32.5% extraordinary 0.5% mil spec 63.0% best hit $4,305 (82.32x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt