--- title: "Red carpet case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Red carpet ($57.81) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 113.19% over 498 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-carpet rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Red carpet](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-carpet) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Red carpet A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-carpet?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-carpet?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-carpet) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-carpet?window=all) Price · $57.81 · 82.58 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $52.55 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 113.19% · 498 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 45 openings · below min 7 days · 115.74% ±20.50 433 openings 30 days · 113.19% ±19.12 498 openings since tracking started · 113.19% ±19.12 498 openings 23.5% 87.0% 150.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.91% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.07% – 132.31%, 498 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-carpet?window=24h) | 45 | 87.06% ±63.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-carpet?window=7d) | 433 | 115.74% ±20.5 | +2.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-carpet) | 498 | 113.19% ±19.1 | +2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-carpet?window=all) | 498 | 113.19% ±19.1 | +2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 498 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,667 3,810 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 1,053 | $1,329 1,898 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · gold · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,222 | $986 1,408 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| compLexity Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 222 | $902 1,288 coins | 7.7% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.78× | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Cologne 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-cologne-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $721 1,030 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 333 | $435 622 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 83 | $415 593 coins | 9.5% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.34× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $404 577 coins | 1.5% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $389 555 coins | 5.5% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $384 549 coins | 12.4% | 10 | 8.5 | 1.18× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $334 477 coins | 6.4% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $300 429 coins | 10.9% | 11 | 9.5 | 1.16× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $225 321 coins | 6.4% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.20× | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $131 187 coins | 6.8% | 12 | 13.7 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $99.40 142 coins | 5.7% | 18 | 14.9 | 1.20× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $50.13 71.61 coins | 4.8% | 16 | 24.9 | 0.64× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $39.73 56.76 coins | 6.8% | 40 | 44.8 | 0.89× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-well-worn) | 15.0% | $19.41 27.73 coins | 5.5% | 81 | 74.7 | 1.08× | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $4.03 5.76 coins | 0.5% | 31 | 29.9 | 1.04× | | [Souvenir Nova \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $3.45 4.93 coins | 0.8% | 65 | 59.8 | 1.09× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 19.0% | $2.22 3.17 coins | 0.8% | 86 | 94.6 | 0.91× | | [Sticker \| Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) | 19.0% | $1.01 1.44 coins | 0.4% | 93 | 94.6 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $58.67 83.81 coins $2,695 3,850 coins 45.94x 2026-11-08 14:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $58.67 83.81 coins $1,565 2,236 coins 26.68x 2026-11-05 19:56 UTC [Sticker | compLexity Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $58.67 83.81 coins $902 1,288 coins 15.37x 2026-11-07 06:17 UTC [Sticker | compLexity Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $58.67 83.81 coins $902 1,288 coins 15.37x 2026-11-05 19:59 UTC [Sticker | compLexity Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $58.67 83.81 coins $902 1,288 coins 15.37x 2026-11-05 19:54 UTC [Sticker | compLexity Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $58.67 83.81 coins $902 1,288 coins 15.37x 2026-11-04 21:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=red-carpet) [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) Hidden $57.81 82.58 coins $1.01 1.44 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.81 82.58 coins $2.22 3.17 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) Hidden $57.81 82.58 coins $39.73 56.76 coins 0.69x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [★ Kukri Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $57.81 82.58 coins $50.13 71.61 coins 0.87x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $57.81 82.58 coins $384 549 coins 6.65x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-well-worn) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $57.81 82.58 coins $19.41 27.73 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Souvenir Nova | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $57.81 82.58 coins $3.45 4.93 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.81 82.58 coins $2.22 3.17 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) Hidden $57.81 82.58 coins $1.01 1.44 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $57.81 82.58 coins $1.01 1.44 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $57.81 | 90.91% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $58.06 | 90.91% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.67 | 90.91% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 23.1% gold 0.0% high 0.4% remarkable 0.1% restricted 35.0% mil spec 1.0% epic 1.9% extraordinary 1.5% industrial 6.0% consumer 12.0% #d32ce6 19.0% best hit $2,695 (45.94x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt