--- title: "Red Light case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Red Light ($7.48) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.94% from 9 items with odds, observed 88.68% over 5,578 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-light rendered: 2026-11-11T14:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Red Light](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-light) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Red Light A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-light?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-light?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-light) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-light?window=all) Price · $7.48 · 10.69 coins Advertised RTP · 90.94% · EV $6.80 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.68% · 5,578 openings, odds method Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 107.01% ±17.05 488 openings 7 days · 90.03% ±5.82 4,327 openings 30 days · 88.68% ±5.14 5,578 openings since tracking started · 88.68% ±5.14 5,578 openings 83.0% 103.8% 124.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-light?window=24h) | 488 | 107.01% ±17.0 | +1.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-light?window=7d) | 4,327 | 90.03% ±5.82 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-light) | 5,578 | 88.68% ±5.14 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-light?window=all) | 5,578 | 88.68% ±5.14 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,582 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $630 900 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $104 148 coins | 19.0% | 60 | 69.8 | 0.86× | | [MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $39.78 56.83 coins | 1.5% | 16 | 14.0 | 1.15× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $19.49 27.84 coins | 25.8% | 487 | 502.4 | 0.97× | | [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 10.5% | $15.07 21.53 coins | 23.2% | 597 | 585.6 | 1.02× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $13.02 18.6 coins | 17.2% | 488 | 502.4 | 0.97× | | [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.00 4.29 coins | 8.8% | 1,130 | 1116.4 | 1.01× | | [Galil AR \| Signal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.50 0.71 coins | 2.2% | 1,709 | 1674.6 | 1.02× | | [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.45 0.65 coins | 1.3% | 1,094 | 1116.4 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $7.48 10.69 coins $630 900 coins 84.19x 2026-11-11 04:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=red-light) [Galil AR | Signal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.48 10.69 coins $0.50 0.71 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $7.48 10.69 coins $3.00 4.29 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) Hidden $7.48 10.69 coins $0.45 0.65 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $7.48 10.69 coins $3.00 4.29 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.48 10.69 coins $19.49 27.84 coins 2.60x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) [Karlberg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Karlberg) $7.48 10.69 coins $19.49 27.84 coins 2.60x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Galil AR | Signal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-battle-scarred) [Karlberg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Karlberg) $7.48 10.69 coins $0.50 0.71 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) Hidden $7.48 10.69 coins $0.45 0.65 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) Hidden $7.48 10.69 coins $0.45 0.65 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.48 10.69 coins $13.02 18.6 coins 1.74x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $7.48 | 90.94% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.49 | 90.93% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.20 | 90.94% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.19 | 90.89% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.3% mil spec 20.3% Legendary 9.0% restricted 69.5% best hit $630 (84.19x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.94 on average: an expected loss of $9.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt