--- title: "Red Shadow case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Red Shadow ($21.53) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 17 items with odds, observed 84.68% over 13K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-shadow rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Red Shadow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-shadow) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Red Shadow A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-shadow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-shadow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-shadow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-shadow?window=all) Price · $21.53 · 30.76 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $19.57 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.68% · 13K openings, odds method Variance · 62.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 143 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 76.07% ±36.63 1,798 openings 7 days · 83.44% ±15.02 10.9K openings 30 days · 84.68% ±13.75 13K openings since tracking started · 84.68% ±13.75 13K openings 39.0% 76.3% 113.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-shadow?window=24h) | 1,798 | 76.07% ±36.6 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-shadow?window=7d) | 10.9K | 83.44% ±15.0 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-shadow) | 13K | 84.68% ±13.7 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/red-shadow?window=all) | 13K | 84.68% ±13.7 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,534 13,620 coins | 4.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 3,333 | $4,088 5,840 coins | 6.3% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $3,217 4,595 coins | 6.6% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.34× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $2,118 3,025 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,461 2,087 coins | 4.5% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 541 | $1,366 1,951 coins | 12.9% | 23 | 24.2 | 0.95× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,285 1,835 coins | 6.6% | 11 | 13.1 | 0.84× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 2.8% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.07× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $557 796 coins | 5.7% | 20 | 26.1 | 0.77× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 250 | $415 593 coins | 8.5% | 55 | 52.3 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $336 480 coins | 8.6% | 55 | 65.3 | 0.84× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $323 462 coins | 9.9% | 67 | 78.4 | 0.85× | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $289 413 coins | 4.4% | 49 | 39.2 | 1.25× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $131 187 coins | 6.7% | 131 | 130.7 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $117 167 coins | 9.0% | 184 | 196.0 | 0.94× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 5,933 | 5879.7 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 6,512 | 6533.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $21.74 31.06 coins $10K 14,325 coins 461.2x 2026-11-03 19:02 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $21.74 31.06 coins $4,088 5,840 coins 188.0x 2026-11-08 05:36 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) [shabi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/shabi) $21.74 31.06 coins $4,088 5,840 coins 188.0x 2026-11-07 15:00 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $21.74 31.06 coins $4,088 5,840 coins 188.0x 2026-11-05 23:46 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) [Vetyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vetyyy) $21.74 31.06 coins $4,088 5,840 coins 188.0x 2026-11-02 23:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [Vaulty](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vaulty) $21.53 30.76 coins $3,217 4,595 coins 149.4x 2026-11-11 07:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [🟢LIVE NOW -> kick.com/budics](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2LIVE%20NOW%20-%3E%20kick.com%2Fbudics) $21.53 30.76 coins $3,217 4,595 coins 149.4x 2026-11-09 17:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $21.74 31.06 coins $3,217 4,595 coins 147.9x 2026-11-08 05:44 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $21.74 31.06 coins $3,217 4,595 coins 147.9x 2026-11-08 05:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $21.74 31.06 coins $3,217 4,595 coins 147.9x 2026-11-08 05:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=red-shadow) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.53 30.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.53 30.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.53 30.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.53 30.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $21.53 30.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.53 30.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.53 30.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.53 30.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.53 30.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.53 30.76 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $21.53 | 90.90% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.74 | 90.90% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.6% remarkable 0.0% extraordinary 0.4% classified 0.5% Legendary 1.0% restricted 1.5% consumer 95.0% best hit $10K (461.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt