---
title: "Reef Bays case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Reef Bays ($35.96) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 16 items with odds, observed 87.11% over 2,260 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reef-bays
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Reef Bays](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reef-bays)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Reef Bays

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reef-bays?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reef-bays?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reef-bays) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reef-bays?window=all)

Price · $35.96 · 51.37 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $32.69 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.11% · 2,260 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.85% ±28.12 127 openings

7 days · 87.57% ±7.35 1,835 openings

30 days · 87.11% ±6.62 2,260 openings

since tracking started · 87.11% ±6.62 2,260 openings

54.0% 82.8% 111.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reef-bays?window=24h) | 127 | 82.85% ±28.1 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reef-bays?window=7d) | 1,835 | 87.57% ±7.35 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reef-bays) | 2,260 | 87.11% ±6.62 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/reef-bays?window=all) | 2,260 | 87.11% ±6.62 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,261 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,258 3,225 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,002 1,432 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 667 | $594 848 coins | 2.7% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.77× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $178 254 coins | 4.4% | 14 | 18.1 | 0.77× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $162 231 coins | 4.9% | 23 | 22.6 | 1.02× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $151 215 coins | 13.8% | 75 | 67.8 | 1.11× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $124 177 coins | 19.0% | 90 | 113.1 | 0.80× |
| [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $88.90 127 coins | 13.6% | 124 | 113.1 | 1.10× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $73.50 105 coins | 11.2% | 110 | 113.1 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| apEX (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apex-foil-cologne-2016) | 1 in 17 | $68.49 97.85 coins | 12.6% | 128 | 135.7 | 0.94× |
| [Cmdr. Frank 'Wet Sox' Baroud \| SEAL Frogman agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmdr-frank-wet-sox-baroud-seal-frogman) | 1 in 17 | $33.42 47.74 coins | 6.1% | 108 | 135.7 | 0.80× |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 10.0% | $15.55 22.21 coins | 4.8% | 226 | 226.1 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 13.0% | $7.55 10.78 coins | 3.0% | 290 | 293.9 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-serenity-well-worn) | 15.0% | $3.11 4.44 coins | 1.4% | 337 | 339.1 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.64 0.91 coins | 0.3% | 347 | 339.1 | 1.02× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.59 0.85 coins | 0.3% | 383 | 339.1 | 1.13× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $36.56 52.23 coins $604 863 coins 16.52x 2026-11-06 22:02 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $36.53 52.18 coins $604 863 coins 16.54x 2026-11-05 09:38 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) [Philiacos](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Philiacos) $36.53 52.18 coins $604 863 coins 16.54x 2026-11-04 18:34 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $36.53 52.18 coins $604 863 coins 16.54x 2026-11-03 23:06 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $35.96 51.37 coins $594 848 coins 16.51x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $35.96 51.37 coins $594 848 coins 16.51x 2026-11-09 06:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=reef-bays)

[P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-factory-new) Hidden $35.96 51.37 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Serenity (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-serenity-well-worn) Hidden $35.96 51.37 coins $3.11 4.44 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[Nova | Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) Hidden $35.96 51.37 coins $15.55 22.21 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.96 51.37 coins $73.50 105 coins 2.04x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $35.96 51.37 coins $124 177 coins 3.45x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-factory-new) Hidden $35.96 51.37 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[Nova | Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) Hidden $35.96 51.37 coins $15.55 22.21 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.96 51.37 coins $88.90 127 coins 2.47x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $35.96 51.37 coins $7.55 10.78 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Serenity (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-serenity-well-worn) Hidden $35.96 51.37 coins $3.11 4.44 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $35.96 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $35.96 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $35.96 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $36.06 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $36.56 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $36.56 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $36.53 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $36.57 | 90.90% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% classified 0.8% covert 14.2% mil spec 5.0% exotic 6.0% red 6.0% blue 10.0% industrial 13.0% restricted 15.0% uncommon 15.0% #4b69ff 15.0% best hit $604 (16.52x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt