--- title: "Renaissance case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Renaissance ($9.06) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 92.44% over 1,892 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/renaissance rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Renaissance](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/renaissance) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Renaissance A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/renaissance?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/renaissance?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/renaissance) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/renaissance?window=all) Price · $9.06 · 12.94 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $8.23 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.44% · 1,892 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.78% ±14.70 219 openings 7 days · 92.66% ±5.22 1,695 openings 30 days · 92.44% ±4.94 1,892 openings since tracking started · 92.44% ±4.94 1,892 openings 82.5% 97.7% 113.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/renaissance?window=24h) | 219 | 97.78% ±14.7 | +0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/renaissance?window=7d) | 1,695 | 92.66% ±5.22 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/renaissance) | 1,892 | 92.44% ±4.94 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/renaissance?window=all) | 1,892 | 92.44% ±4.94 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,898 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 5,556 | $173 247 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $152 217 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 11,111 | $134 192 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $115 164 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 1,111 | $108 154 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $59.14 84.48 coins | 0.7% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $57.46 82.08 coins | 1.0% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $53.17 75.95 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $51.29 73.27 coins | 8.2% | 28 | 25.1 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $40.77 58.24 coins | 16.6% | 59 | 63.6 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $15.11 21.59 coins | 8.1% | 87 | 83.5 | 1.04× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $11.47 16.39 coins | 9.8% | 133 | 132.9 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $10.66 15.23 coins | 7.0% | 116 | 102.5 | 1.13× | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $8.79 12.56 coins | 7.3% | 133 | 129.1 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $7.43 10.61 coins | 7.5% | 163 | 157.5 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $6.46 9.23 coins | 6.7% | 185 | 161.3 | 1.15× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fubar-minimal-wear) | 10.3% | $4.61 6.59 coins | 5.8% | 186 | 195.5 | 0.95× | | [P90 \| Attack Vector (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $4.59 6.56 coins | 4.5% | 140 | 151.8 | 0.92× | | [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $4.59 6.56 coins | 4.9% | 178 | 165.1 | 1.08× | | [XM1014 \| XOXO (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $4.26 6.09 coins | 4.9% | 158 | 178.4 | 0.89× | | [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.65 3.78 coins | 2.6% | 153 | 151.8 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 10.1% | $1.88 2.68 coins | 2.3% | 170 | 191.7 | 0.89× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=renaissance) [MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) Hidden $9.06 12.94 coins $4.59 6.56 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $9.06 12.94 coins $7.43 10.61 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.06 12.94 coins $8.79 12.56 coins 0.97x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-well-worn) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $9.06 12.94 coins $7.43 10.61 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) Hidden $9.06 12.94 coins $4.59 6.56 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [P90 | Attack Vector (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-field-tested) Hidden $9.06 12.94 coins $4.59 6.56 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.06 12.94 coins $2.65 3.78 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.06 12.94 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.06 12.94 coins $4.26 6.09 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-pulse-factory-new) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $9.06 12.94 coins $15.11 21.59 coins 1.67x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.06 | 90.91% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.11 | 90.89% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.11 | 90.88% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.6% classified 23.1% mil spec 18.4% uncommon 18.1% restricted 23.2% pink 7.0% Legendary 8.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt