---
title: "Restricted case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Restricted ($146.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 34 items with odds, observed 88.01% over 122 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/restricted
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/restricted)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Restricted

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/restricted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/restricted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/restricted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/restricted?window=all)

Price · $146.99 · 210 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $133.62 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.01% · 122 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 92.11% ±25.34 106 openings

30 days · 88.01% ±23.62 122 openings

since tracking started · 88.01% ±23.62 122 openings

63.5% 90.8% 118.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/restricted?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/restricted?window=7d) | 106 | 92.11% ±25.3 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/restricted) | 122 | 88.01% ±23.6 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/restricted?window=all) | 122 | 88.01% ±23.6 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,780 9,685 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 5,000 | $5,040 7,200 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,949 7,070 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,088 5,840 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $2,153 3,075 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 500 | $1,387 1,982 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,165 1,664 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Fnatic (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $1,007 1,439 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $665 950 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $552 788 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $465 664 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $404 577 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $385 550 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $370 529 coins | 2.8% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.46× |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $356 508 coins | 2.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.82× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $348 497 coins | 5.2% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.64× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $334 477 coins | 5.0% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.05× |
| [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $305 435 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $285 407 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $273 390 coins | 4.1% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $219 313 coins | 4.9% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $159 227 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.55× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $125 179 coins | 2.8% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $124 177 coins | 3.7% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $123 176 coins | 4.6% | 9 | 6.1 | 1.48× |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $90.30 129 coins | 2.7% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.43× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $90.30 129 coins | 5.4% | 10 | 9.8 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) | 10.0% | $88.20 126 coins | 6.6% | 13 | 12.2 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $72.80 104 coins | 2.2% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $68.93 98.47 coins | 2.1% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-styx-factory-new) | 15.0% | $64.57 92.24 coins | 7.2% | 12 | 18.3 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 20.0% | $59.58 85.12 coins | 8.9% | 27 | 24.4 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $54.97 78.53 coins | 1.2% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $52.19 74.56 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) Hidden $151 216 coins $665 950 coins 4.41x 2026-11-06 01:31 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $151 216 coins $561 802 coins 3.72x 2026-11-08 02:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=restricted)

[AK-47 | First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) Hidden $151 216 coins $90.30 129 coins 0.60x 2026-11-08 03:37 UTC

[USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) Hidden $151 216 coins $63.37 90.53 coins 0.42x 2026-11-08 03:37 UTC

[Nova | Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) Hidden $151 216 coins $88.20 126 coins 0.58x 2026-11-08 03:37 UTC

[P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $151 216 coins $125 178 coins 0.83x 2026-11-08 03:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $151 216 coins $350 500 coins 2.32x 2026-11-08 03:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) [lielfarag70](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/lielfarag70) $151 216 coins $60.25 86.07 coins 0.40x 2026-11-08 03:37 UTC

[AK-47 | First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) Hidden $151 216 coins $90.30 129 coins 0.60x 2026-11-08 02:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $151 216 coins $60.25 86.07 coins 0.40x 2026-11-08 02:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $151 216 coins $111 158 coins 0.73x 2026-11-08 02:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $151 216 coins $60.25 86.07 coins 0.40x 2026-11-08 02:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $147 | 90.91% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $148 | 90.91% | 34 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $151 | 90.91% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 0.7% restricted 89.4% violet 10.0% best hit $665 (4.41x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt