--- title: "Retro case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Retro ($15.62) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 76.21% over 1,503 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/retro rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Retro](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/retro) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Retro A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/retro?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/retro?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/retro) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/retro?window=all) Price · $15.62 · 22.32 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $14.20 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.21% · 1,503 openings, odds method Variance · 6.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 72.22% ±49.18 102 openings 7 days · 77.29% ±13.79 1,305 openings 30 days · 76.21% ±12.85 1,503 openings since tracking started · 76.21% ±12.85 1,503 openings 22.5% 72.3% 122.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.90% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (63.36% – 89.06%, 1,503 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/retro?window=24h) | 102 | 72.22% ±49.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/retro?window=7d) | 1,305 | 77.29% ±13.8 | −1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/retro) | 1,503 | 76.21% ±12.9 | −2.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/retro?window=all) | 1,503 | 76.21% ±12.9 | −2.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,503 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $485 693 coins | 10.2% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $264 377 coins | 9.3% | 6 | 7.5 | 0.80× | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $154 220 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 4.5 | 0.22× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $149 213 coins | 14.7% | 9 | 21.0 | 0.43× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $127 181 coins | 8.9% | 14 | 15.0 | 0.93× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $65.10 93 coins | 11.5% | 40 | 37.6 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $19.42 27.74 coins | 8.2% | 98 | 90.2 | 1.09× | | [Patch \| Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) | 1 in 13 | $16.29 23.27 coins | 9.2% | 132 | 120.2 | 1.10× | | [Sticker \| Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) | 1 in 14 | $11.21 16.01 coins | 5.5% | 129 | 105.2 | 1.23× | | [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $9.02 12.89 coins | 4.8% | 111 | 112.7 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| FaZe Clan (Holo) \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-faze-clan-holo-copenhagen-2024) | 10.0% | $5.27 7.53 coins | 3.7% | 129 | 150.3 | 0.86× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Tango (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-tango-factory-new) | 17.0% | $4.61 6.59 coins | 5.5% | 245 | 255.5 | 0.96× | | [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-well-worn) | 11.5% | $2.81 4.01 coins | 2.3% | 158 | 172.8 | 0.91× | | [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 18.0% | $1.58 2.26 coins | 2.0% | 306 | 270.5 | 1.13× | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $1.53 2.18 coins | 1.0% | 123 | 135.3 | 0.91× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=retro) [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Tango (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-tango-factory-new) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $4.61 6.59 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) [Terroristi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Terroristi) $15.62 22.32 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Tango (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-tango-factory-new) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $4.61 6.59 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [P90 | Glacier Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $2.81 4.01 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [Sticker | FaZe Clan (Holo) | Copenhagen 2024 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-faze-clan-holo-copenhagen-2024) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $5.27 7.53 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [Sticker | Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $11.21 16.01 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Tango (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-tango-factory-new) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $4.61 6.59 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Tango (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-tango-factory-new) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $4.61 6.59 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Tango (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-tango-factory-new) [Terroristi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Terroristi) $15.62 22.32 coins $4.61 6.59 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.62 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.50 | 90.93% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $15.44 | 90.89% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.43 | 90.93% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.2% extraordinary 0.5% classified 0.3% pink 6.0% remarkable 15.0% restricted 25.5% exotic 10.0% uncommon 17.0% mil spec 11.5% industrial 9.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt