--- title: "Riddle case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Riddle ($21.65) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 21 items with odds, observed 91.28% over 1,366 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riddle rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Riddle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riddle) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Riddle A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riddle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riddle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riddle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riddle?window=all) Price · $21.65 · 30.93 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $19.69 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.28% · 1,366 openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.78% ±29.93 111 openings 7 days · 91.33% ±9.79 1,063 openings 30 days · 91.28% ±8.65 1,366 openings since tracking started · 91.28% ±8.65 1,366 openings 50.0% 80.8% 111.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riddle?window=24h) | 111 | 80.78% ±29.9 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riddle?window=7d) | 1,063 | 91.33% ±9.79 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riddle) | 1,366 | 91.28% ±8.65 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riddle?window=all) | 1,366 | 91.28% ±8.65 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,366 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $186 266 coins | 6.6% | 7 | 9.6 | 0.73× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $113 161 coins | 37.2% | 93 | 88.8 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $110 157 coins | 4.2% | 11 | 10.2 | 1.07× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 250 | $106 152 coins | 2.2% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.46× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $94.50 135 coins | 2.4% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× | | [Sticker \| somebody (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-somebody-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 125 | $93.80 134 coins | 3.8% | 8 | 10.9 | 0.73× | | [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $92.40 132 coins | 2.6% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $88.90 127 coins | 2.9% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.90× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 333 | $85.40 122 coins | 1.3% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $74.20 106 coins | 3.8% | 25 | 13.7 | 1.83× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $29.48 42.11 coins | 3.0% | 31 | 27.3 | 1.13× | | [P90 \| Baroque Red (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $25.35 36.22 coins | 4.5% | 37 | 47.8 | 0.77× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $18.82 26.88 coins | 7.6% | 108 | 109.3 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $17.71 25.3 coins | 2.7% | 29 | 41.0 | 0.71× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $17.47 24.95 coins | 3.5% | 50 | 54.6 | 0.92× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $12.48 17.83 coins | 4.4% | 107 | 95.6 | 1.12× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $8.13 11.61 coins | 2.1% | 66 | 68.3 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $3.34 4.77 coins | 2.0% | 162 | 163.9 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.50 2.14 coins | 0.8% | 145 | 136.6 | 1.06× | | [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) | 19.4% | $1.39 1.99 coins | 1.4% | 254 | 264.3 | 0.96× | | [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) | 14.0% | $1.34 1.91 coins | 1.0% | 203 | 191.2 | 1.06× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=riddle) [Five-SeveN | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $21.65 30.93 coins $1.39 1.99 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [MAG-7 | Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) Hidden $21.65 30.93 coins $1.34 1.91 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [MAC-10 | Tatter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-battle-scarred) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $21.65 30.93 coins $3.34 4.77 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.65 30.93 coins $12.48 17.83 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.65 30.93 coins $12.48 17.83 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [P90 | Baroque Red (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-field-tested) Hidden $21.65 30.93 coins $25.35 36.22 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [MAG-7 | Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) Hidden $21.65 30.93 coins $1.34 1.91 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 09:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.65 30.93 coins $17.47 24.95 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 09:36 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.65 30.93 coins $18.82 26.88 coins 0.87x 2026-11-11 09:36 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [FLURRAN csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/FLURRAN%20csgoroll.com) $21.65 30.93 coins $106 152 coins 4.91x 2026-11-11 09:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $21.65 | 90.92% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.66 | 90.91% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $21.25 | 90.92% | 21 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $21.24 | 90.92% | 21 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $21.19 | 90.90% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.22 | 90.90% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 20.7% covert 9.5% remarkable 0.8% mil spec 13.1% restricted 36.7% consumer 19.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt