--- title: "Rigid case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rigid ($18.82) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 80.15% over 930 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rigid rendered: 2026-11-11T14:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Rigid](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rigid) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Rigid A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rigid?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rigid?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rigid) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rigid?window=all) Price · $18.82 · 26.88 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $17.11 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.15% · 930 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 79.92% ±35.79 124 openings 7 days · 79.54% ±13.83 786 openings 30 days · 80.15% ±12.68 930 openings since tracking started · 80.15% ±12.68 930 openings 43.5% 80.0% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rigid?window=24h) | 124 | 79.92% ±35.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rigid?window=7d) | 786 | 79.54% ±13.8 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rigid) | 930 | 80.15% ±12.7 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rigid?window=all) | 930 | 80.15% ±12.7 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 930 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $493 704 coins | 5.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.08× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $291 416 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $170 243 coins | 3.0% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $134 192 coins | 4.3% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $111 159 coins | 5.9% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.84× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $105 150 coins | 24.6% | 25 | 37.2 | 0.67× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $102 146 coins | 4.8% | 14 | 7.4 | 1.88× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 154 | $85.40 122 coins | 3.2% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $83.30 119 coins | 9.7% | 14 | 18.6 | 0.75× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $77.70 111 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $77.00 110 coins | 1.8% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $50.61 72.3 coins | 4.4% | 14 | 13.9 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $33.31 47.59 coins | 5.8% | 27 | 27.9 | 0.97× | | [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $17.93 25.62 coins | 7.3% | 60 | 65.1 | 0.92× | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $15.49 22.13 coins | 7.3% | 63 | 75.3 | 0.84× | | [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.52 19.31 coins | 4.0% | 61 | 46.5 | 1.31× | | [Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.85 2.64 coins | 2.2% | 207 | 186.0 | 1.11× | | [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.53 2.18 coins | 1.8% | 206 | 186.0 | 1.11× | | [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-well-worn) | 25.0% | $0.09 0.13 coins | 0.1% | 215 | 232.5 | 0.92× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=rigid) [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $18.82 26.88 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.82 26.88 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.82 26.88 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $18.82 26.88 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $18.82 26.88 coins $105 150 coins 5.58x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $18.82 26.88 coins $33.31 47.59 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $18.82 26.88 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) [᠌ ᠌Liwon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E1%A0%8C%20%E1%A0%8CLiwon) $18.82 26.88 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $18.82 26.88 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.82 26.88 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $18.82 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $18.82 | 90.90% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.94 | 90.91% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $18.72 | 90.90% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.58 | 90.92% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 3.8% covert 9.4% restricted 1.7% industrial 12.0% mil spec 53.1% Mythical 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt