--- title: "Risk case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Risk ($1.05) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.87% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.97% over 145K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/risk rendered: 2026-11-11T13:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Risk](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/risk) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Risk A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/risk?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/risk?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/risk) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/risk?window=all) Price · $1.05 · 1.5 coins Advertised RTP · 90.87% · EV $0.95 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.97% · 145K openings, odds method Variance · 17.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 66 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.26% ±6.81 14.9K openings 7 days · 90.32% ±2.33 122K openings 30 days · 89.97% ±2.13 145K openings since tracking started · 89.97% ±2.13 145K openings 87.0% 94.2% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/risk?window=24h) | 14.9K | 94.26% ±6.81 | +1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/risk?window=7d) | 122K | 90.32% ±2.33 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/risk) | 145K | 89.97% ±2.13 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/risk?window=all) | 145K | 89.97% ±2.13 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 146K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $61.92 88.45 coins | 0.6% | 17 | 14.6 | 1.17× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $59.89 85.56 coins | 6.3% | 145 | 145.6 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $34.79 49.7 coins | 14.6% | 549 | 582.4 | 0.94× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $29.02 41.46 coins | 30.4% | 1,438 | 1456.0 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $12.29 17.56 coins | 12.9% | 1,458 | 1456.0 | 1.00× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $8.58 12.26 coins | 18.0% | 2,944 | 2911.9 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.17 4.53 coins | 11.6% | 5,086 | 5081.3 | 1.00× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.20 3.14 coins | 4.6% | 2,889 | 2911.9 | 0.99× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.7% | 65,137 | 65518.7 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.3% | 65,934 | 65518.7 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) Hidden $1.04 1.49 coins $64.32 91.88 coins 61.66x 2026-11-07 15:47 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) [R2rS\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/R2rS*-5991544) $1.04 1.49 coins $64.32 91.88 coins 61.66x 2026-11-06 16:15 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) Hidden $1.04 1.49 coins $64.32 91.88 coins 61.66x 2026-11-06 11:11 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) [PC Principal](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PC%20Principal) $1.04 1.49 coins $64.32 91.88 coins 61.66x 2026-11-06 01:36 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) Hidden $1.04 1.49 coins $64.32 91.88 coins 61.66x 2026-11-05 20:55 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) Hidden $1.04 1.49 coins $64.32 91.88 coins 61.66x 2026-11-05 02:50 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) Hidden $1.04 1.49 coins $64.32 91.88 coins 61.66x 2026-11-04 11:17 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) [SAFE THE KOALAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/SAFE%20THE%20KOALAS) $1.04 1.49 coins $64.32 91.88 coins 61.66x 2026-11-03 19:19 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) Hidden $1.04 1.49 coins $64.32 91.88 coins 61.66x 2026-11-03 18:17 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) Hidden $1.04 1.49 coins $64.32 91.88 coins 61.66x 2026-11-03 17:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=risk) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.05 1.5 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.05 1.5 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.05 1.5 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [rxtzyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/rxtzyy) $1.05 1.5 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.05 1.5 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.05 1.5 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [si^b^rO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/si%5Eb%5ErO) $1.05 1.5 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.05 1.5 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.05 1.5 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.05 1.5 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.05 | 90.87% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.04 | 90.76% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% classified 6.6% covert 1.4% restricted 2.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $64.32 (61.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.87 on average: an expected loss of $9.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt