--- title: "Riskmas case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Riskmas ($8.13) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.87% from 18 items with odds, observed 87.42% over 23.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riskmas rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Riskmas](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riskmas) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Riskmas A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riskmas?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riskmas?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riskmas) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riskmas?window=all) Price · $8.13 · 11.62 coins Advertised RTP · 90.87% · EV $7.39 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.42% · 23.6K openings, odds method Variance · 289.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 741 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3,144 openings · below min 7 days · 86.49% ±24.02 19.3K openings 30 days · 87.42% ±21.74 23.6K openings since tracking started · 87.42% ±21.74 23.6K openings 38.5% 98.5% 158.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riskmas?window=24h) | 3,144 | 98.59% ±59.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riskmas?window=7d) | 19.3K | 86.49% ±24.0 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riskmas) | 23.6K | 87.42% ±21.7 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riskmas?window=all) | 23.6K | 87.42% ±21.7 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,857 | $6,930 9,900 coins | 32.8% | 8 | 8.3 | 0.97× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,600 2,285 coins | 13.0% | 10 | 14.2 | 0.71× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 6.0% | 14 | 9.4 | 1.48× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 1,250 | $412 589 coins | 4.5% | 16 | 18.9 | 0.85× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 400 | $258 369 coins | 8.7% | 52 | 59.0 | 0.88× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 163 | $62.39 89.13 coins | 5.2% | 157 | 145.1 | 1.08× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $27.90 39.86 coins | 4.2% | 249 | 259.5 | 0.96× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $16.42 23.46 coins | 0.3% | 27 | 28.3 | 0.95× | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $15.06 21.52 coins | 3.1% | 326 | 353.9 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $11.73 16.76 coins | 1.3% | 187 | 188.8 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $7.06 10.08 coins | 2.4% | 567 | 589.9 | 0.96× | | [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $4.61 6.59 coins | 3.4% | 1,238 | 1274.1 | 0.97× | | [Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $3.53 5.04 coins | 0.2% | 92 | 94.4 | 0.97× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-well-worn) | 10.0% | $3.46 4.94 coins | 4.7% | 2,363 | 2359.5 | 1.00× | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $3.14 4.48 coins | 0.9% | 484 | 495.5 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 19.0% | $1.83 2.61 coins | 4.7% | 4,471 | 4483.1 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 26.0% | $0.74 1.06 coins | 2.6% | 6,185 | 6134.7 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) | 30.0% | $0.55 0.78 coins | 2.2% | 7,149 | 7078.5 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [m a L L e](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m%20a%20L%20L%20e) $8.22 11.74 coins $6,969 9,955 coins 848.0x 2026-11-08 12:12 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $8.20 11.72 coins $6,969 9,955 coins 849.4x 2026-11-07 05:24 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $8.20 11.72 coins $6,969 9,955 coins 849.4x 2026-11-05 17:33 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Han D. Ish](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Han%20D.%20Ish) $8.20 11.72 coins $6,969 9,955 coins 849.4x 2026-11-05 08:53 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $8.19 11.7 coins $6,969 9,955 coins 850.9x 2026-11-04 12:28 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $8.19 11.7 coins $6,969 9,955 coins 850.9x 2026-11-03 06:05 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $8.13 11.62 coins $6,930 9,900 coins 852.0x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [aq334](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/aq334) $8.12 11.6 coins $6,930 9,900 coins 853.4x 2026-11-09 20:34 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [juLz71](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/juLz71) $8.20 11.72 coins $1,653 2,362 coins 201.5x 2026-11-07 17:51 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [doktorskaja](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/doktorskaja) $8.20 11.72 coins $1,653 2,362 coins 201.5x 2026-11-07 10:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=riskmas) [P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) Hidden $8.13 11.62 coins $0.74 1.06 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) Hidden $8.13 11.62 coins $0.55 0.78 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) Hidden $8.13 11.62 coins $0.74 1.06 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) [Santa Sniper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Santa%20Sniper) $8.13 11.62 coins $0.55 0.78 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) Hidden $8.13 11.62 coins $0.74 1.06 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) Hidden $8.13 11.62 coins $0.55 0.78 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.13 11.62 coins $1.83 2.61 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) Hidden $8.13 11.62 coins $0.55 0.78 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) Hidden $8.13 11.62 coins $0.55 0.78 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $8.13 11.62 coins $0.74 1.06 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $8.13 | 90.87% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $8.12 | 90.94% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.12 | 90.91% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.11 | 90.91% | 18 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $8.22 | 90.89% | 18 | | 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $8.20 | 90.88% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.19 | 90.93% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% classified 11.5% restricted 77.6% mil spec 1.2% #d32ce6 0.8% industrial 5.8% Industrial Grade 2.1% best hit $6,969 (848.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.87 on average: an expected loss of $9.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt