---
title: "Ritual case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ritual ($15.88) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 24 items with odds, observed 93.84% over 1,405 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ritual
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Ritual](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ritual)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Ritual

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ritual?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ritual?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ritual) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ritual?window=all)

Price · $15.88 · 22.69 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $14.44 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.84% · 1,405 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 66 openings · below min

7 days · 91.95% ±11.70 1,117 openings

30 days · 93.84% ±10.44 1,405 openings

since tracking started · 93.84% ±10.44 1,405 openings

17.5% 66.0% 114.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ritual?window=24h) | 66 | 66.03% ±47.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ritual?window=7d) | 1,117 | 91.95% ±11.7 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ritual) | 1,405 | 93.84% ±10.4 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ritual?window=all) | 1,405 | 93.84% ±10.4 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,405 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $254 363 coins | 7.0% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.25× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $207 296 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $186 266 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $107 153 coins | 4.1% | 4 | 7.7 | 0.52× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $103 147 coins | 42.8% | 92 | 84.3 | 1.09× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-mosaico-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $64.44 92.06 coins | 7.8% | 26 | 24.6 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $56.39 80.56 coins | 2.7% | 7 | 9.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $46.68 66.69 coins | 1.0% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $33.07 47.25 coins | 5.7% | 40 | 35.1 | 1.14× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $21.54 30.77 coins | 3.1% | 32 | 29.5 | 1.08× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Acheron (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-acheron-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $20.62 29.45 coins | 2.1% | 26 | 20.4 | 1.28× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $19.59 27.98 coins | 3.7% | 37 | 37.9 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $19.25 27.5 coins | 2.5% | 27 | 26.7 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $16.88 24.12 coins | 5.3% | 66 | 63.2 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $15.88 22.69 coins | 1.4% | 17 | 17.6 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $12.05 17.21 coins | 2.5% | 42 | 42.2 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $11.69 16.7 coins | 2.8% | 56 | 49.2 | 1.14× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $6.05 8.64 coins | 1.7% | 64 | 56.2 | 1.14× |
| [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.50 5 coins | 1.2% | 58 | 70.3 | 0.83× |
| [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.37 0.53 coins | 0.3% | 131 | 140.5 | 0.93× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.31 0.44 coins | 0.2% | 141 | 140.5 | 1.00× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.10 0.15 coins | 0.1% | 158 | 140.5 | 1.12× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-well-worn) | 13.3% | $0.06 0.08 coins | 0.1% | 184 | 186.2 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 187 | 210.8 | 0.89× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=ritual)

[Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $15.88 22.69 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

[Nova | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.88 22.69 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Stained (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-well-worn) Hidden $15.88 22.69 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

[MAC-10 | Carnivore (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-field-tested) Hidden $15.88 22.69 coins $0.37 0.53 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

[MAC-10 | Carnivore (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-field-tested) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $15.88 22.69 coins $0.37 0.53 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

[FAMAS | Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) Hidden $15.88 22.69 coins $33.07 47.25 coins 2.08x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Stained (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-well-worn) Hidden $15.88 22.69 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:03 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $15.88 22.69 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:03 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) [Señor WAC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Se%C3%B1or%20WAC) $15.88 22.69 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:03 UTC

[AUG | Fleet Flock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-factory-new) Hidden $15.88 22.69 coins $19.59 27.98 coins 1.23x 2026-11-11 07:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $15.88 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $15.88 | 90.92% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.88 | 90.89% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.67 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.49 | 90.93% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 8.1% industrial 45.0% classified 14.1% restricted 6.6% mil spec 26.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt