--- title: "Roasted case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Roasted ($121.52) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 26 items with odds, observed 91.28% over 108 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roasted rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Roasted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roasted) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Roasted A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roasted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roasted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roasted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roasted?window=all) Price · $121.52 · 174 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $110.48 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.28% · 108 openings, odds method Variance · 7.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 90 openings · below min 30 days · 91.28% ±50.57 108 openings since tracking started · 91.28% ±50.57 108 openings 33.0% 89.0% 145.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roasted?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roasted?window=7d) | 90 | 89.22% ±55.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roasted) | 108 | 91.28% ±50.6 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roasted?window=all) | 108 | 91.28% ±50.6 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $11.4K 16,295 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $7,297 10,425 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,808 9,725 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,657 9,510 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $3,213 4,590 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 455 | $1,559 2,227 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 500 | $1,520 2,172 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 667 | $1,467 2,096 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 286 | $1,132 1,617 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $895 1,279 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $592 846 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 143 | $444 634 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) | 1 in 67 | $412 589 coins | 5.6% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.23× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $309 442 coins | 2.5% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $170 243 coins | 12.3% | 10 | 8.6 | 1.16× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $117 167 coins | 4.8% | 9 | 4.9 | 1.85× | | [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $95.20 136 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $95.20 136 coins | 4.3% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $82.60 118 coins | 1.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [★ Bowie Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife) | 1 in 14 | $73.50 105 coins | 4.7% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.19× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 19.7% | $70.70 101 coins | 12.6% | 20 | 21.2 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 15.0% | $48.33 69.05 coins | 6.6% | 17 | 16.2 | 1.05× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) (Emerald) gloves · extraordinary · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred-emerald) | 12.0% | $30.87 44.1 coins | 3.4% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) | 18.0% | $29.46 42.09 coins | 4.8% | 16 | 19.4 | 0.82× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $16.42 23.46 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $123 175 coins $1,175 1,679 coins 9.59x 2026-11-03 22:01 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $122 174 coins $895 1,279 coins 7.37x 2026-11-08 20:06 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $122 174 coins $592 846 coins 4.87x 2026-11-08 20:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=roasted) [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) [User#878](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23878) $122 174 coins $70.70 101 coins 0.58x 2026-11-08 20:07 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) Hidden $122 174 coins $170 243 coins 1.40x 2026-11-08 20:07 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) Hidden $122 174 coins $70.70 101 coins 0.58x 2026-11-08 20:07 UTC [Desert Eagle | Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) Hidden $122 174 coins $29.46 42.09 coins 0.24x 2026-11-08 20:07 UTC [Desert Eagle | Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) Hidden $122 174 coins $29.46 42.09 coins 0.24x 2026-11-08 20:07 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) (Emerald) gloves · extraordinary · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred-emerald) Hidden $122 174 coins $30.87 44.1 coins 0.25x 2026-11-08 20:07 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) [User#878](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23878) $122 174 coins $117 167 coins 0.96x 2026-11-08 20:06 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) Hidden $122 174 coins $70.70 101 coins 0.58x 2026-11-08 20:06 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $122 174 coins $48.33 69.05 coins 0.40x 2026-11-08 20:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $122 174 coins $95.20 136 coins 0.78x 2026-11-08 20:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $122 | 90.91% | 26 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $121 | 90.91% | 26 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $123 | 90.91% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 39.3% contraband 0.1% classified 2.8% epic 0.5% restricted 1.5% extraordinary 17.0% industrial 19.7% uncommon 18.0% mil spec 1.2% best hit $1,175 (9.59x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt