---
title: "Rocky Road case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Rocky Road ($6.34) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 16 items with odds, observed 93.67% over 6,157 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rocky-road
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Rocky Road](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rocky-road)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Rocky Road

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rocky-road?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rocky-road?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rocky-road) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rocky-road?window=all)

Price · $6.34 · 9.05 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $5.76 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.67% · 6,157 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96.69% ±16.68 908 openings

7 days · 93.00% ±7.31 4,802 openings

30 days · 93.67% ±6.46 6,157 openings

since tracking started · 93.67% ±6.46 6,157 openings

79.5% 96.8% 114.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rocky-road?window=24h) | 908 | 96.69% ±16.7 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rocky-road?window=7d) | 4,802 | 93.00% ±7.31 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rocky-road) | 6,157 | 93.67% ±6.46 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rocky-road?window=all) | 6,157 | 93.67% ±6.46 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,157 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $293 418 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $125 178 coins | 32.4% | 100 | 92.3 | 1.08× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 500,000 | $58.88 84.12 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333,333 | $42.01 60.02 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $30.24 43.2 coins | 15.7% | 192 | 184.7 | 1.04× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $20.60 29.43 coins | 10.7% | 194 | 184.7 | 1.05× |
| [SSG 08 \| Red Stone (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $16.06 22.95 coins | 4.2% | 88 | 92.4 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) | 12.0% | $12.73 18.18 coins | 26.5% | 722 | 738.8 | 0.98× |
| [Negev \| Boroque Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.18 3.11 coins | 1.1% | 181 | 184.7 | 0.98× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.84 2.63 coins | 1.0% | 201 | 184.7 | 1.09× |
| [Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $1.54 2.2 coins | 3.2% | 736 | 738.8 | 1.00× |
| [Negev \| Boroque Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $1.01 1.44 coins | 2.1% | 736 | 738.8 | 1.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.52 0.74 coins | 1.1% | 774 | 738.8 | 1.05× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.37 0.53 coins | 0.8% | 730 | 738.8 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Scale (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-scale-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.36 0.52 coins | 0.8% | 726 | 738.8 | 0.98× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 13.0% | $0.17 0.24 coins | 0.4% | 777 | 800.4 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=rocky-road)

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $6.34 9.05 coins $20.60 29.43 coins 3.25x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC

[Negev | Boroque Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-minimal-wear) [robsidopsi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/robsidopsi) $6.34 9.05 coins $2.18 3.11 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC

[Galil AR | Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-battle-scarred) [Voitelija](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Voitelija) $6.34 9.05 coins $1.54 2.2 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Scale (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-scale-field-tested) Hidden $6.34 9.05 coins $0.36 0.52 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Negev | Boroque Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.34 9.05 coins $1.01 1.44 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-factory-new) [Biceps |](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Biceps%20%7C) $6.34 9.05 coins $0.52 0.74 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $6.34 9.05 coins $12.73 18.18 coins 2.01x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Scale (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-scale-field-tested) Hidden $6.34 9.05 coins $0.36 0.52 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

[Galil AR | Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.34 9.05 coins $1.54 2.2 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.34 9.05 coins $0.17 0.24 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 14:18 UTC | $6.34 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $6.34 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.36 | 90.89% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $6.36 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.36 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.22 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $6.22 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $6.22 | 90.96% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.23 | 90.86% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.24 | 90.91% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% consumer 45.0% restricted 6.0% mil spec 49.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt