--- title: "Roman case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Roman ($221.55) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 86.97% over 48 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roman rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Roman](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roman) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Roman A case on CSGORoll (70%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roman?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roman?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roman) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roman?window=all) Price · $221.55 · 317 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $201.41 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.97% · 48 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 54.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 40.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 48 openings · below min 30 days · 48 openings · below min since tracking started · 48 openings · below min 67.5% 97.5% 127.5% **Small sample.** 48 openings and 26.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roman?window=24h) | 18 | 97.47% ±29.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roman?window=7d) | 48 | 86.97% ±18.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roman) | 48 | 86.97% ±18.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/roman?window=all) | 48 | 86.97% ±18.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $473 676 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $446 637 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $431 616 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 15.0% | $323 461 coins | 24.0% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.69× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 33.0% | $273 390 coins | 44.7% | 20 | 15.8 | 1.26× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $225 321 coins | 5.6% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 10.5% | $221 315 coins | 11.5% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.39× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 10.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=roman) [★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $222 317 coins $273 390 coins 1.23x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $222 317 coins $221 315 coins 1.00x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $222 317 coins $221 315 coins 1.00x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $222 317 coins $273 390 coins 1.23x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $222 317 coins $221 315 coins 1.00x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $222 317 coins $323 461 coins 1.46x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $222 317 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $222 317 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $222 317 coins $273 390 coins 1.23x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $222 317 coins $273 390 coins 1.23x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $222 | 90.91% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $222 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $220 | 90.91% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 65.0% extraordinary 5.0% consumer 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt