--- title: "Romeo case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Romeo ($1.22) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.95% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.41% over 12.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/romeo rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Romeo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/romeo) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Romeo A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/romeo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/romeo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/romeo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/romeo?window=all) Price · $1.22 · 1.75 coins Advertised RTP · 90.95% · EV $1.11 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.41% · 12.9K openings, odds method Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 46.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.58% ±8.65 1,610 openings 7 days · 91.31% ±3.34 10.7K openings 30 days · 91.41% ±3.04 12.9K openings since tracking started · 91.41% ±3.04 12.9K openings 83.5% 92.8% 102.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/romeo?window=24h) | 1,610 | 92.58% ±8.65 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/romeo?window=7d) | 10.7K | 91.31% ±3.34 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/romeo) | 12.9K | 91.41% ±3.04 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/romeo?window=all) | 12.9K | 91.41% ±3.04 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16,667 | $135 193 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12,500 | $82.60 118 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 2,381 | $39.73 56.76 coins | 1.5% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× | | [Sticker \| seang@res \| Boston 2018 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-seang-res-boston-2018) | 1 in 8,333 | $33.07 47.25 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 1,220 | $32.33 46.19 coins | 2.4% | 17 | 10.6 | 1.61× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-well-worn) | 1 in 1,111 | $27.59 39.41 coins | 2.2% | 9 | 11.6 | 0.77× | | [Patch \| Abandon Hope patch · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-abandon-hope) | 1 in 667 | $17.02 24.32 coins | 2.3% | 18 | 19.4 | 0.93× | | [Patch \| Heroic (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-heroic-gold-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 435 | $4.75 6.79 coins | 1.0% | 40 | 29.7 | 1.35× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $4.36 6.23 coins | 10.9% | 348 | 359.0 | 0.97× | | [Patch \| MOUZ \| Stockholm 2021 patch · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-mouz-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 100 | $2.63 3.75 coins | 2.4% | 135 | 129.1 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| Ruby Stream (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream-lenticular) | 1 in 200 | $2.27 3.24 coins | 1.0% | 65 | 64.6 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.83 2.62 coins | 10.7% | 849 | 839.3 | 1.01× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) | 10.0% | $1.36 1.94 coins | 12.2% | 1,259 | 1291.3 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| xertioN (Gold) \| Paris 2023 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xertion-gold-paris-2023) | 25.0% | $0.93 1.33 coins | 20.9% | 3,272 | 3228.3 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| MOUZ (Holo) \| Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-holo-paris-2023) | 23.5% | $0.72 1.03 coins | 15.2% | 2,987 | 3034.6 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) | 30.1% | $0.58 0.83 coins | 15.7% | 3,906 | 3886.8 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.22 1.75 coins $135 193 coins 110.3x 2026-11-11 01:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=romeo) [Sticker | xertioN (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xertion-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $1.22 1.75 coins $0.93 1.33 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-holo-paris-2023) [Guliu Rukau](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Guliu%20Rukau) $1.22 1.75 coins $0.72 1.03 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) Hidden $1.22 1.75 coins $0.58 0.83 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $1.22 1.75 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 1.11x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $1.22 1.75 coins $0.72 1.03 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) [Guliu Rukau](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Guliu%20Rukau) $1.22 1.75 coins $1.83 2.62 coins 1.50x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [Sticker | xertioN (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xertion-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $1.22 1.75 coins $0.93 1.33 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $1.22 1.75 coins $0.72 1.03 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [Sticker | xertioN (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xertion-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $1.22 1.75 coins $0.93 1.33 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) [Guliu Rukau](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Guliu%20Rukau) $1.22 1.75 coins $0.58 0.83 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $1.22 | 90.95% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.22 | 91.17% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.20 | 91.00% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.22 | 91.05% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.25 | 91.05% | 16 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.25 | 91.03% | 16 | | 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $1.25 | 90.85% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.25 | 90.81% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 0.0% covert 0.1% high 1.2% classified 0.1% remarkable 0.2% restricted 9.3% extraordinary 25.5% base 10.0% exotic 23.5% mil spec 30.1% best hit $135 (110.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.95 on average: an expected loss of $9.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt