--- title: "Rotten case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rotten ($72.82) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 101.35% over 2,649 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rotten rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Rotten](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rotten) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Rotten A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rotten?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rotten?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rotten) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rotten?window=all) Price · $72.82 · 104 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $66.20 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.35% · 2,649 openings, odds method Variance · 10.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 162 openings · below min 7 days · 100.23% ±12.48 2,479 openings 30 days · 101.35% ±12.07 2,649 openings since tracking started · 101.35% ±12.07 2,649 openings 54.5% 104.3% 154.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rotten?window=24h) | 162 | 104.36% ±49.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rotten?window=7d) | 2,479 | 100.23% ±12.5 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rotten) | 2,649 | 101.35% ±12.1 | +1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rotten?window=all) | 2,649 | 101.35% ±12.1 | +1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,649 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $2,895 4,135 coins | 6.6% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.76× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,716 3,880 coins | 2.1% | 4 | 1.3 | 3.02× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,724 2,463 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,655 2,364 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $1,393 1,990 coins | 9.5% | 15 | 11.9 | 1.26× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,331 1,901 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,292 1,845 coins | 5.9% | 10 | 7.9 | 1.26× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $1,157 1,653 coins | 10.5% | 18 | 15.9 | 1.13× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $1,002 1,432 coins | 11.4% | 23 | 19.9 | 1.16× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 111 | $522 746 coins | 7.1% | 22 | 23.8 | 0.92× | | [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $454 649 coins | 8.6% | 50 | 33.1 | 1.51× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $356 508 coins | 5.4% | 27 | 26.5 | 1.02× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $299 427 coins | 6.3% | 43 | 37.1 | 1.16× | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $160 229 coins | 4.0% | 37 | 44.0 | 0.84× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $151 216 coins | 3.0% | 25 | 34.4 | 0.73× | | [Sticker \| Lore Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lore-poison-frog-foil) | 30.0% | $16.86 24.09 coins | 7.6% | 825 | 794.7 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $10.48 14.97 coins | 4.7% | 796 | 794.7 | 1.00× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 30.0% | $6.92 9.89 coins | 3.1% | 748 | 794.7 | 0.94× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $72.82 104 coins $2,895 4,135 coins 39.75x 2026-11-11 00:12 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $73.64 105 coins $2,832 4,045 coins 38.45x 2026-11-05 13:22 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $73.64 105 coins $2,832 4,045 coins 38.45x 2026-11-04 21:50 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $73.64 105 coins $2,832 4,045 coins 38.45x 2026-11-03 16:22 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) Hidden $73.51 105 coins $2,804 4,005 coins 38.14x 2026-11-08 11:28 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) [Der beste Uwe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Der%20beste%20Uwe) $73.64 105 coins $2,804 4,005 coins 38.07x 2026-11-05 14:14 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) Hidden $73.64 105 coins $2,804 4,005 coins 38.07x 2026-11-05 14:11 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) Hidden $73.64 105 coins $2,804 4,005 coins 38.07x 2026-11-05 13:05 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) [Der beste Uwe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Der%20beste%20Uwe) $73.51 105 coins $1,730 2,471 coins 23.53x 2026-11-08 00:38 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $72.82 104 coins $1,393 1,990 coins 19.13x 2026-11-10 09:58 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=rotten) [AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) Hidden $72.82 104 coins $6.92 9.89 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC [Sticker | Lore Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lore-poison-frog-foil) Hidden $72.82 104 coins $16.86 24.09 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-battle-scarred) Hidden $72.82 104 coins $10.48 14.97 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $72.82 104 coins $356 508 coins 4.88x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-battle-scarred) Hidden $72.82 104 coins $10.48 14.97 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC [Sticker | Lore Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lore-poison-frog-foil) Hidden $72.82 104 coins $16.86 24.09 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-battle-scarred) Hidden $72.82 104 coins $10.48 14.97 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-battle-scarred) Hidden $72.82 104 coins $10.48 14.97 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-battle-scarred) Hidden $72.82 104 coins $10.48 14.97 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-battle-scarred) [Lil Purp csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lil%20Purp%20csgoroll.com) $72.82 104 coins $10.48 14.97 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $72.82 | 90.91% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $72.93 | 90.91% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $73.51 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $73.64 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.2% extraordinary 1.7% covert 5.7% classified 32.4% exotic 30.0% restricted 30.0% best hit $2,895 (39.75x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt