---
title: "Royalty case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Royalty ($63.57) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 12 items with odds, observed 89.21% over 1,643 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/royalty
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Royalty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/royalty)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Royalty

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/royalty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/royalty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/royalty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/royalty?window=all)

Price · $63.57 · 90.81 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $57.79 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.21% · 1,643 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 72.18% ±30.81 138 openings

7 days · 89.73% ±9.39 1,402 openings

30 days · 89.21% ±8.66 1,643 openings

since tracking started · 89.21% ±8.66 1,643 openings

40.5% 72.0% 103.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/royalty?window=24h) | 138 | 72.18% ±30.8 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/royalty?window=7d) | 1,402 | 89.73% ±9.39 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/royalty) | 1,643 | 89.21% ±8.66 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/royalty?window=all) | 1,643 | 89.21% ±8.66 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,643 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 1 in 222 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 11.9% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $158 225 coins | 1.4% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $96.60 138 coins | 8.4% | 104 | 82.1 | 1.27× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $95.20 136 coins | 8.2% | 77 | 82.1 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $74.90 107 coins | 25.9% | 323 | 328.6 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $72.80 104 coins | 2.5% | 26 | 32.9 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $52.35 74.78 coins | 6.3% | 105 | 115.0 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 20.0% | $51.30 73.29 coins | 17.8% | 308 | 328.6 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $28.64 40.92 coins | 2.5% | 81 | 82.1 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $21.74 31.06 coins | 1.9% | 81 | 82.1 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $21.15 30.21 coins | 11.0% | 522 | 492.9 | 1.06× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $64.29 91.85 coins $2,594 3,705 coins 40.34x 2026-11-08 06:29 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $63.57 90.81 coins $1,528 2,183 coins 24.04x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $64.29 91.85 coins $1,477 2,110 coins 22.97x 2026-11-06 22:00 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $64.29 91.85 coins $1,477 2,110 coins 22.97x 2026-11-06 14:50 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $64.29 91.85 coins $1,477 2,110 coins 22.97x 2026-11-05 18:26 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $64.29 91.85 coins $1,477 2,110 coins 22.97x 2026-11-05 16:53 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) [Tyrone](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tyrone) $64.29 91.85 coins $1,477 2,110 coins 22.97x 2026-11-04 15:38 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=royalty)

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) Hidden $63.57 90.81 coins $51.30 73.29 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 20:36 UTC

[M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.57 90.81 coins $74.90 107 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 20:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.57 90.81 coins $74.90 107 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) Hidden $63.57 90.81 coins $51.30 73.29 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.57 90.81 coins $21.15 30.21 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.57 90.81 coins $21.15 30.21 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC

[M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.57 90.81 coins $74.90 107 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.57 90.81 coins $74.90 107 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) Hidden $63.57 90.81 coins $51.30 73.29 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) Hidden $63.57 90.81 coins $96.60 138 coins 1.52x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $63.57 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $64.88 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $64.29 | 90.90% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 35.0% legendary 0.4% covert 57.5% industrial 2.0% restricted 5.0% best hit $2,594 (40.34x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt