---
title: "Rubber case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Rubber ($23.31) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 77.09% over 1,800 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rubber
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Rubber](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rubber)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Rubber

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rubber?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rubber?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rubber) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rubber?window=all)

Price · $23.31 · 33.3 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $21.19 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.09% · 1,800 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.77% ±34.80 247 openings

7 days · 79.54% ±14.01 1,542 openings

30 days · 77.09% ±12.98 1,800 openings

since tracking started · 77.09% ±12.98 1,800 openings

47.5% 82.7% 118.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.90% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (64.11% – 90.07%, 1,800 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rubber?window=24h) | 247 | 82.77% ±34.8 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rubber?window=7d) | 1,542 | 79.54% ±14.0 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rubber) | 1,800 | 77.09% ±13.0 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rubber?window=all) | 1,800 | 77.09% ±13.0 | −2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,800 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $582 832 coins | 13.7% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $363 519 coins | 8.6% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $344 492 coins | 8.1% | 3 | 9.0 | 0.33× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $174 249 coins | 32.9% | 63 | 72.0 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $167 238 coins | 3.9% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $132 189 coins | 5.6% | 17 | 16.2 | 1.05× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $95.20 136 coins | 2.2% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.22× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $67.53 96.47 coins | 4.1% | 17 | 23.4 | 0.73× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $60.39 86.27 coins | 2.8% | 24 | 18.0 | 1.33× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $60.26 86.08 coins | 2.3% | 17 | 14.4 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $36.97 52.82 coins | 2.0% | 19 | 20.7 | 0.92× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $26.89 38.42 coins | 2.5% | 32 | 36.0 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $19.94 28.48 coins | 1.4% | 32 | 27.0 | 1.19× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $12.42 17.75 coins | 1.1% | 32 | 32.4 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $11.58 16.54 coins | 2.7% | 119 | 90.0 | 1.32× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $8.68 12.4 coins | 1.0% | 44 | 45.0 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Fire Serpent Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fire-serpent-surf-k-foil) | 1 in 33 | $6.95 9.93 coins | 1.0% | 57 | 54.0 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $3.00 4.29 coins | 0.9% | 88 | 108.0 | 0.81× |
| [Sticker \| Watermelon Tentaskull sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-watermelon-tentaskull) | 1 in 13 | $2.00 2.86 coins | 0.8% | 141 | 144.0 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.95 1.36 coins | 0.3% | 119 | 117.0 | 1.02× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-battle-scarred) | 19.1% | $0.89 1.27 coins | 0.8% | 320 | 342.9 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.74 1.06 coins | 0.5% | 304 | 270.0 | 1.13× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $0.73 1.05 coins | 0.6% | 319 | 324.0 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $23.31 33.3 coins $582 832 coins 24.98x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $23.31 33.3 coins $582 832 coins 24.98x 2026-11-10 17:39 UTC

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $23.34 33.34 coins $582 832 coins 24.96x 2026-11-09 00:41 UTC

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) [Kenny Starfighter CSGOROLL.COM](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kenny%20Starfighter%20CSGOROLL.COM) $23.21 33.16 coins $582 832 coins 25.09x 2026-11-07 15:00 UTC

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $23.21 33.16 coins $582 832 coins 25.09x 2026-11-06 22:28 UTC

[Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $23.20 33.14 coins $582 832 coins 25.11x 2026-11-05 16:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=rubber)

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) Hidden $23.31 33.3 coins $11.58 16.54 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.31 33.3 coins $8.68 12.4 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-battle-scarred) Hidden $23.31 33.3 coins $0.89 1.27 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) Hidden $23.31 33.3 coins $0.74 1.06 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-battle-scarred) Hidden $23.31 33.3 coins $0.89 1.27 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $23.31 33.3 coins $3.00 4.29 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $23.31 33.3 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.31 33.3 coins $8.68 12.4 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $23.31 33.3 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) [BRÄTT \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BR%C3%84TT%20%3C3) $23.31 33.3 coins $3.00 4.29 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $23.31 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $23.31 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $23.34 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $23.37 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.21 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $23.22 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $23.21 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $23.20 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $23.20 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.18 | 90.92% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 42.3% classified 1.7% covert 7.6% extraordinary 0.5% industrial 1.5% mil spec 29.5% exotic 3.0% Classified 6.0% high 8.0% best hit $582 (24.98x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt