--- title: "Rudolph case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rudolph ($13.45) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 21 items with odds, observed 90.37% over 2,916 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rudolph rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Rudolph](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rudolph) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Rudolph A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rudolph?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rudolph?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rudolph) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rudolph?window=all) Price · $13.45 · 19.21 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $12.22 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.37% · 2,916 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.77% ±13.36 620 openings 7 days · 90.82% ±6.76 2,451 openings 30 days · 90.37% ±6.20 2,916 openings since tracking started · 90.37% ±6.20 2,916 openings 79.0% 93.0% 107.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rudolph?window=24h) | 620 | 92.77% ±13.4 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rudolph?window=7d) | 2,451 | 90.82% ±6.76 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rudolph) | 2,916 | 90.37% ±6.20 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rudolph?window=all) | 2,916 | 90.37% ±6.20 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,916 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $420 600 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $274 392 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $186 266 coins | 0.9% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.14× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $153 218 coins | 2.5% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $106 152 coins | 4.4% | 11 | 14.6 | 0.75× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $86.10 123 coins | 4.9% | 19 | 20.4 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $73.50 105 coins | 6.0% | 29 | 29.2 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| HellRaisers \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 67 | $59.18 84.54 coins | 7.3% | 49 | 43.7 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $56.55 80.78 coins | 9.3% | 61 | 58.3 | 1.05× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $54.03 77.18 coins | 11.0% | 73 | 72.9 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| NiKo \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 33 | $42.34 60.48 coins | 10.4% | 93 | 87.5 | 1.06× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $40.87 58.38 coins | 10.0% | 76 | 87.5 | 0.87× | | [Sticker \| mousesports (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-foil-cologne-2016) | 1 in 29 | $30.77 43.95 coins | 8.8% | 108 | 102.1 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $30.20 43.14 coins | 8.6% | 112 | 102.1 | 1.10× | | [Sticker \| spaze (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spaze-foil-cologne-2016) | 1 in 25 | $28.00 40 coins | 9.2% | 118 | 116.6 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $15.01 21.45 coins | 5.5% | 140 | 131.2 | 1.07× | | [Sticker \| Team Liquid (Glitter) \| Rio 2022 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-glitter-rio-2022) | 14.0% | $0.08 0.11 coins | 0.1% | 395 | 408.2 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| Team Liquid \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-stockholm-2021) | 14.0% | $0.03 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 418 | 408.2 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Team Liquid \| Paris 2023 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-paris-2023) | 14.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 389 | 408.2 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| Team Liquid \| Rio 2022 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-rio-2022) | 14.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 401 | 408.2 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Team Liquid \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-antwerp-2022) | 14.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 418 | 408.2 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=rudolph) [Sticker | Team Liquid | Stockholm 2021 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-stockholm-2021) Hidden $13.45 19.21 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [Sticker | Team Liquid | Paris 2023 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-paris-2023) Hidden $13.45 19.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [Sticker | Team Liquid | Antwerp 2022 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-antwerp-2022) Hidden $13.45 19.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [Sticker | Team Liquid | Paris 2023 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-paris-2023) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $13.45 19.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [Sticker | Team Liquid | Paris 2023 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-paris-2023) Hidden $13.45 19.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-field-tested) Hidden $13.45 19.21 coins $15.01 21.45 coins 1.12x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $13.45 19.21 coins $40.87 58.38 coins 3.04x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [Sticker | NiKo | Atlanta 2017 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-atlanta-2017) [ElChapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ElChapo) $13.45 19.21 coins $42.34 60.48 coins 3.15x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [Sticker | Team Liquid | Rio 2022 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-rio-2022) Hidden $13.45 19.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:22 UTC [Sticker | Team Liquid | Stockholm 2021 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-stockholm-2021) Hidden $13.45 19.21 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $13.45 | 90.90% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $13.15 | 90.89% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.17 | 90.92% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 4.5% classified 9.0% high 60.5% restricted 2.0% extraordinary 2.5% exotic 7.5% remarkable 14.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt