---
title: "Rush case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Rush ($1.24) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.02% from 12 items with odds, observed 91.12% over 33.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rush
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Rush](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rush)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Rush

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rush?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rush?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rush) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rush?window=all)

Price · $1.24 · 1.77 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.02% · EV $1.13 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.12% · 33.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.50% ±8.21 4,554 openings

7 days · 90.21% ±3.38 27.1K openings

30 days · 91.12% ±3.06 33.1K openings

since tracking started · 91.12% ±3.06 33.1K openings

86.0% 96.8% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rush?window=24h) | 4,554 | 98.50% ±8.21 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rush?window=7d) | 27.1K | 90.21% ±3.38 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rush) | 33.1K | 91.12% ±3.06 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rush?window=all) | 33.1K | 91.12% ±3.06 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| RUSH (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 10,000 | $196 280 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $27.04 38.63 coins | 12.0% | 162 | 165.8 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $11.77 16.82 coins | 10.4% | 341 | 331.6 | 1.03× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $8.88 12.68 coins | 39.4% | 1,681 | 1657.9 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $4.45 6.36 coins | 9.9% | 853 | 829.0 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.83 2.62 coins | 6.5% | 1,325 | 1326.3 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-photic-zone-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.52 0.75 coins | 4.2% | 2,964 | 2984.2 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $0.31 0.44 coins | 4.6% | 5,711 | 5636.9 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-well-worn) | 18.0% | $0.31 0.44 coins | 4.9% | 6,029 | 5968.4 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.27 0.39 coins | 2.9% | 3,900 | 3979.0 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 13.0% | $0.15 0.22 coins | 1.8% | 4,299 | 4310.5 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.10 0.15 coins | 1.7% | 5,891 | 5965.1 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | RUSH (Gold) | London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-gold-london-2018) Hidden $1.22 1.75 coins $197 281 coins 160.6x 2026-11-03 07:18 UTC

[Sticker | RUSH (Gold) | London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-gold-london-2018) Hidden $1.22 1.75 coins $197 281 coins 160.6x 2026-11-03 02:52 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=rush)

[P2000 | Ivory (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-well-worn) Hidden $1.24 1.77 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.24 1.77 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-photic-zone-field-tested) Hidden $1.24 1.77 coins $0.52 0.75 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $1.24 1.77 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $1.24 1.77 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) [Max1m](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Max1m) $1.24 1.77 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) Hidden $1.24 1.77 coins $0.15 0.22 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) Hidden $1.24 1.77 coins $0.15 0.22 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[P2000 | Ivory (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-well-worn) Hidden $1.24 1.77 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) [Max1m](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Max1m) $1.24 1.77 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $1.24 | 91.02% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.24 | 91.09% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $1.24 | 90.99% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $1.24 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.24 | 91.13% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.23 | 90.97% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.22 | 90.98% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.22 | 90.99% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $1.22 | 90.94% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $1.22 | 90.87% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.22 | 90.80% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.22 | 91.11% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% restricted 4.5% classified 8.5% mil spec 40.0% Rare 17.0% industrial 30.0% best hit $197 (160.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.02 on average: an expected loss of $8.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt