---
title: "Rusty case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Rusty ($3.11) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.96% from 19 items with odds, observed 93.43% over 19.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rusty
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Rusty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rusty)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Rusty

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rusty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rusty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rusty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rusty?window=all)

Price · $3.11 · 4.45 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.96% · EV $2.83 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.43% · 19.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.83% ±10.77 2,736 openings

7 days · 92.20% ±4.32 17.1K openings

30 days · 93.43% ±4.08 19.1K openings

since tracking started · 93.43% ±4.08 19.1K openings

82.5% 93.8% 105.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rusty?window=24h) | 2,736 | 93.83% ±10.8 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rusty?window=7d) | 17.1K | 92.20% ±4.32 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rusty) | 19.1K | 93.43% ±4.08 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rusty?window=all) | 19.1K | 93.43% ±4.08 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $412 588 coins | 1.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $116 166 coins | 2.1% | 12 | 9.6 | 1.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $88.20 126 coins | 6.2% | 40 | 38.3 | 1.05× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $58.88 84.12 coins | 2.1% | 19 | 19.1 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $53.69 76.7 coins | 9.5% | 118 | 95.6 | 1.23× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $53.47 76.39 coins | 13.2% | 130 | 133.9 | 0.97× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $36.43 52.05 coins | 3.9% | 63 | 57.4 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $9.33 13.33 coins | 4.9% | 294 | 286.9 | 1.02× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $9.31 13.3 coins | 6.6% | 339 | 382.5 | 0.89× |
| [Tec-9 \| Rust Leaf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $6.00 8.57 coins | 2.1% | 212 | 191.3 | 1.11× |
| [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.10 5.86 coins | 7.2% | 930 | 956.3 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.02 5.74 coins | 5.7% | 773 | 765.0 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $3.86 5.52 coins | 4.1% | 595 | 573.8 | 1.04× |
| [P90 \| Leather (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $3.50 5 coins | 3.1% | 485 | 478.1 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-well-worn) | 12.0% | $2.35 3.36 coins | 10.0% | 2,268 | 2295.0 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-field-tested) | 16.0% | $1.75 2.5 coins | 9.9% | 3,029 | 3060.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.94 1.35 coins | 2.3% | 1,414 | 1338.8 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-factory-new) | 18.0% | $0.90 1.28 coins | 5.7% | 3,297 | 3442.5 | 0.96× |
| [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-field-tested) | 26.1% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 5,105 | 4999.3 | 1.02× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.27 4.67 coins $431 616 coins 131.9x 2026-11-07 22:22 UTC

[★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.14 4.48 coins $412 588 coins 131.3x 2026-11-08 22:39 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=rusty)

[Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-field-tested) Hidden $3.11 4.45 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $3.11 4.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-field-tested) [Terroristi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Terroristi) $3.11 4.45 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-factory-new) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $3.11 4.45 coins $0.90 1.28 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-factory-new) Hidden $3.11 4.45 coins $0.90 1.28 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-factory-new) Hidden $3.11 4.45 coins $0.90 1.28 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-field-tested) Hidden $3.11 4.45 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $3.11 4.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-field-tested) Hidden $3.11 4.45 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.11 4.45 coins $6.00 8.57 coins 1.93x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $3.11 | 90.96% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.12 | 90.84% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $3.12 | 90.98% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.14 | 90.93% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.28 | 90.82% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $3.27 | 90.87% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $3.27 | 90.84% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $3.27 | 90.88% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $3.25 | 90.93% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.25 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.28 | 90.86% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.7% mil spec 45.2% restricted 1.5% industrial 6.5% Mythical 4.0% consumer 42.1% best hit $431 (131.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.96 on average: an expected loss of $9.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt