---
title: "Saint Patricks Day case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Saint Patricks Day ($62.87) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 90.79% over 4,929 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/saint-patricks-day
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Saint Patricks Day](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/saint-patricks-day)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Saint Patricks Day

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/saint-patricks-day?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/saint-patricks-day?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/saint-patricks-day) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/saint-patricks-day?window=all)

Price · $62.87 · 89.81 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $57.15 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.79% · 4,929 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 65.86% ±38.50 130 openings

7 days · 93.29% ±8.34 2,796 openings

30 days · 90.79% ±6.31 4,929 openings

since tracking started · 90.79% ±6.31 4,929 openings

26.5% 65.8% 105.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/saint-patricks-day?window=24h) | 130 | 65.86% ±38.5 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/saint-patricks-day?window=7d) | 2,796 | 93.29% ±8.34 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/saint-patricks-day) | 4,929 | 90.79% ±6.31 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/saint-patricks-day?window=all) | 4,929 | 90.79% ±6.31 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,929 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,787 9,695 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,037 2,910 coins | 1.1% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.35× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,282 1,832 coins | 1.8% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.76× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $452 646 coins | 55.4% | 365 | 345.0 | 1.06× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $442 631 coins | 0.8% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $163 233 coins | 2.3% | 28 | 39.4 | 0.71× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $157 224 coins | 1.4% | 21 | 24.6 | 0.85× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $122 175 coins | 2.1% | 47 | 49.3 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $105 150 coins | 5.5% | 122 | 147.9 | 0.83× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $67.04 95.77 coins | 7.0% | 258 | 295.7 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $53.17 75.95 coins | 4.7% | 264 | 246.5 | 1.07× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $24.78 35.4 coins | 3.9% | 451 | 443.6 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 20.0% | $23.07 32.95 coins | 8.1% | 1,011 | 985.8 | 1.03× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $10.66 15.23 coins | 4.1% | 1,098 | 1084.4 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 25.5% | $1.61 2.3 coins | 0.7% | 1,253 | 1255.9 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $63.00 90 coins $2,065 2,950 coins 32.78x 2026-11-04 09:50 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $62.87 89.81 coins $2,037 2,910 coins 32.40x 2026-11-10 18:40 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $63.00 90 coins $1,342 1,917 coins 21.30x 2026-11-04 02:42 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $62.87 89.81 coins $1,282 1,832 coins 20.40x 2026-11-09 03:58 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $62.87 89.81 coins $1,282 1,832 coins 20.40x 2026-11-09 03:40 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=saint-patricks-day)

[CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $62.87 89.81 coins $23.07 32.95 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) Hidden $62.87 89.81 coins $67.04 95.77 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.87 89.81 coins $10.66 15.23 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.87 89.81 coins $10.66 15.23 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.87 89.81 coins $10.66 15.23 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) [Queen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Queen) $62.87 89.81 coins $10.66 15.23 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) Hidden $62.87 89.81 coins $1.61 2.3 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) Hidden $62.87 89.81 coins $1.61 2.3 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [Queen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Queen) $62.87 89.81 coins $1.61 2.3 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.87 89.81 coins $24.78 35.4 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $62.87 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $62.92 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $63.00 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.5% restricted 41.5% rare 1.0% mil spec 23.0% classified 28.0% best hit $2,065 (32.78x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt