--- title: "Sapphire case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sapphire ($123.89) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 79.57% over 142 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sapphire rendered: 2026-11-11T17:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sapphire) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sapphire A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sapphire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sapphire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sapphire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sapphire?window=all) Price · $123.89 · 177 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $112.63 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.57% · 142 openings, odds method Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 79.57% ±38.83 142 openings since tracking started · 79.57% ±38.83 142 openings -0.5% 132.5% 265.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sapphire?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sapphire?window=7d) | 6 | 75.83% ±188.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sapphire) | 142 | 79.57% ±38.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sapphire?window=all) | 142 | 79.57% ±38.8 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 142 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $10.7K 15,300 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,311 4,730 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 556 | $2,769 3,955 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 667 | $1,576 2,251 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 250 | $457 653 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $445 636 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $348 497 coins | 6.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.41× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $316 452 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $276 394 coins | 4.9% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× | | [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $255 365 coins | 10.2% | 7 | 6.4 | 1.10× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 182 | $247 353 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 125 | $232 332 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $151 215 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.08× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $148 211 coins | 3.3% | 7 | 3.6 | 1.97× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 33 | $134 192 coins | 3.6% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.17× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $109 155 coins | 4.8% | 5 | 7.1 | 0.70× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $82.60 118 coins | 2.9% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.41× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 17.7% | $80.50 115 coins | 12.6% | 28 | 25.1 | 1.12× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $66.92 95.6 coins | 4.8% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.06× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $65.72 93.89 coins | 3.5% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.82× | | [Sticker \| Luminosity Gaming (Foil) \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luminosity-gaming-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) | 20.0% | $64.97 92.82 coins | 11.5% | 28 | 28.4 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 20.0% | $48.33 69.05 coins | 8.6% | 25 | 28.4 | 0.88× | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $21.53 30.75 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sapphire) [Sticker | Luminosity Gaming (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luminosity-gaming-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $124 177 coins $64.97 92.82 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $124 177 coins $80.50 115 coins 0.65x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $124 177 coins $48.33 69.05 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [Sticker | Luminosity Gaming (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luminosity-gaming-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $124 177 coins $64.97 92.82 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $124 177 coins $80.50 115 coins 0.65x 2026-11-10 19:41 UTC [Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $124 177 coins $255 365 coins 2.06x 2026-11-10 19:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $124 177 coins $109 155 coins 0.88x 2026-11-10 19:41 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) [Lucky Buddha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucky%20Buddha) $124 177 coins $148 211 coins 1.19x 2026-11-10 19:41 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $127 181 coins $61.72 88.17 coins 0.49x 2026-11-05 12:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) Hidden $127 181 coins $67.79 96.84 coins 0.54x 2026-11-05 12:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $127 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 4.0% covert 60.9% restricted 10.1% classified 5.0% exotic 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt