--- title: "Scarred case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Scarred ($27.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 22 items with odds, observed 97.16% over 818 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scarred rendered: 2026-11-11T22:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Scarred](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scarred) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Scarred A case on CSGORoll (csgo, 20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scarred?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scarred?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scarred) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scarred?window=all) Price · $27.99 · 39.99 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $25.45 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.16% · 818 openings, odds method Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 47 openings · below min 7 days · 97.15% ±24.35 691 openings 30 days · 97.16% ±22.35 818 openings since tracking started · 97.16% ±22.35 818 openings 54.0% 149.8% 245.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scarred?window=24h) | 47 | 149.83% ±95.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scarred?window=7d) | 691 | 97.15% ±24.4 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scarred) | 818 | 97.16% ±22.4 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scarred?window=all) | 818 | 97.16% ±22.4 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 818 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,617 6,595 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,333 | $1,988 2,840 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,865 2,665 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,000 1,428 coins | 3.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $648 926 coins | 5.1% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.83× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $592 846 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $568 812 coins | 5.6% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $404 577 coins | 7.9% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.71× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $286 409 coins | 3.4% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.04× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $198 283 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 182 | $169 242 coins | 3.7% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 129 | $103 147 coins | 3.1% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $60.39 86.27 coins | 1.8% | 9 | 6.1 | 1.47× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $57.77 82.53 coins | 2.3% | 11 | 8.2 | 1.34× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $42.11 60.15 coins | 3.3% | 13 | 16.4 | 0.79× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $38.21 54.58 coins | 1.5% | 13 | 8.2 | 1.59× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $27.48 39.26 coins | 7.6% | 60 | 57.3 | 1.05× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $26.36 37.66 coins | 5.2% | 34 | 40.9 | 0.83× | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $18.65 26.64 coins | 22.0% | 245 | 245.4 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $5.12 7.32 coins | 4.0% | 155 | 163.6 | 0.95× | | [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $4.44 6.35 coins | 5.2% | 248 | 245.4 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) [P21=)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/P21%3D%29) $28.36 40.51 coins $1,477 2,110 coins 52.09x 2026-11-07 02:55 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) [Dunlap](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dunlap) $27.99 39.99 coins $1,000 1,428 coins 35.71x 2026-11-10 05:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.36 40.51 coins $578 825 coins 20.37x 2026-11-03 10:35 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.99 39.99 coins $568 812 coins 20.31x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.36 40.51 coins $519 741 coins 18.29x 2026-11-07 20:30 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.36 40.51 coins $519 741 coins 18.29x 2026-11-06 05:30 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.36 40.51 coins $519 741 coins 18.29x 2026-11-03 22:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=scarred) [SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.99 39.99 coins $4.44 6.35 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $27.99 39.99 coins $5.12 7.32 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.99 39.99 coins $18.65 26.64 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.99 39.99 coins $5.12 7.32 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.99 39.99 coins $27.48 39.26 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $27.99 39.99 coins $26.36 37.66 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.99 39.99 coins $5.12 7.32 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 20:11 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.99 39.99 coins $18.65 26.64 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 20:11 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $27.99 39.99 coins $18.65 26.64 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 20:11 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) [Lajjan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lajjan) $27.99 39.99 coins $5.12 7.32 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $27.99 | 90.90% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $28.51 | 90.91% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.36 | 90.91% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 11.8% classified 20.6% extraordinary 7.1% restricted 30.5% consumer 30.0% best hit $1,477 (52.09x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt