--- title: "Science case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Science ($29.97) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 14 items with odds, observed 87.53% over 337 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/science rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Science](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/science) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Science A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/science?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/science?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/science) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/science?window=all) Price · $29.97 · 42.82 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $27.25 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.53% · 337 openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 87.53% ±12.95 337 openings 30 days · 87.53% ±12.95 337 openings since tracking started · 87.53% ±12.95 337 openings 27.0% 93.3% 159.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/science?window=24h) | 14 | 93.29% ±65.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/science?window=7d) | 337 | 87.53% ±13.0 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/science) | 337 | 87.53% ±13.0 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/science?window=all) | 337 | 87.53% ±13.0 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 337 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $520 743 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $236 337 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $218 311 coins | 1.2% | 3 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $207 296 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $102 145 coins | 9.3% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $81.20 116 coins | 3.0% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $74.20 106 coins | 27.2% | 35 | 33.7 | 1.04× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) weapon · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $67.54 96.49 coins | 2.5% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $49.06 70.09 coins | 18.0% | 32 | 33.7 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $42.29 60.41 coins | 3.9% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $27.74 39.63 coins | 12.2% | 38 | 40.4 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $8.15 11.64 coins | 6.0% | 66 | 67.4 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Liquid Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire) | 20.0% | $5.56 7.94 coins | 4.1% | 75 | 67.4 | 1.11× | | [Sticker \| Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-flick-holo) | 20.0% | $5.55 7.93 coins | 4.1% | 72 | 67.4 | 1.07× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=science) [Sticker | Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-flick-holo) Hidden $29.97 42.82 coins $5.55 7.93 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire) Hidden $29.97 42.82 coins $5.56 7.94 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire) Hidden $29.97 42.82 coins $5.56 7.94 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [Sticker | Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-flick-holo) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $29.97 42.82 coins $5.55 7.93 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $29.97 42.82 coins $81.20 116 coins 2.71x 2026-11-11 10:22 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.97 42.82 coins $8.15 11.64 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 10:22 UTC [AWP | Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.97 42.82 coins $27.74 39.63 coins 0.93x 2026-11-11 10:22 UTC [Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) [mos´ez](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mos%C2%B4ez) $29.97 42.82 coins $49.06 70.09 coins 1.64x 2026-11-11 10:22 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire) Hidden $29.97 42.82 coins $5.56 7.94 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 05:04 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire) Hidden $29.97 42.82 coins $5.56 7.94 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 05:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.97 | 90.90% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.54 | 90.90% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.28 | 90.90% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.3% classified 24.9% covert 14.9% mil spec 20.0% high 20.0% remarkable 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt