---
title: "Scrapyard case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Scrapyard ($3.72) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 12 items with odds, observed 89.01% over 14.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scrapyard
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Scrapyard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scrapyard)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Scrapyard

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scrapyard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scrapyard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scrapyard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scrapyard?window=all)

Price · $3.72 · 5.32 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $3.38 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.01% · 14.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.13% ±8.60 1,399 openings

7 days · 89.51% ±2.94 11.8K openings

30 days · 89.01% ±2.69 14.1K openings

since tracking started · 89.01% ±2.69 14.1K openings

85.5% 95.0% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scrapyard?window=24h) | 1,399 | 95.13% ±8.60 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scrapyard?window=7d) | 11.8K | 89.51% ±2.94 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scrapyard) | 14.1K | 89.01% ±2.69 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/scrapyard?window=all) | 14.1K | 89.01% ±2.69 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $79.10 113 coins | 2.3% | 12 | 14.1 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $28.64 40.92 coins | 8.5% | 137 | 140.8 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $18.82 26.88 coins | 38.9% | 955 | 985.3 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $12.42 17.75 coins | 18.4% | 682 | 703.8 | 0.97× |
| [M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-field-tested) | 10.0% | $2.87 4.1 coins | 8.5% | 1,384 | 1407.5 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.16 3.09 coins | 5.1% | 1,182 | 1126.0 | 1.05× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.70 2.43 coins | 3.5% | 998 | 985.3 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Module (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.22 1.74 coins | 3.6% | 1,413 | 1407.5 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 14.9% | $1.15 1.65 coins | 5.1% | 2,114 | 2097.2 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-well-worn) | 12.0% | $0.80 1.14 coins | 2.8% | 1,653 | 1689.0 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.66 0.94 coins | 1.9% | 1,433 | 1407.5 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.31 0.44 coins | 1.4% | 2,112 | 2111.3 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=scrapyard)

[MAG-7 | Praetorian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.72 5.32 coins $1.70 2.43 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) Hidden $3.72 5.32 coins $1.15 1.65 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-well-worn) [si^b^rO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/si%5Eb%5ErO) $3.72 5.32 coins $0.80 1.14 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) Hidden $3.72 5.32 coins $1.15 1.65 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.72 5.32 coins $0.66 0.94 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-well-worn) Hidden $3.72 5.32 coins $0.80 1.14 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[MAG-7 | Praetorian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.72 5.32 coins $1.70 2.43 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) [si^b^rO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/si%5Eb%5ErO) $3.72 5.32 coins $1.15 1.65 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-well-worn) Hidden $3.72 5.32 coins $0.80 1.14 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $3.72 5.32 coins $2.87 4.1 coins 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.72 | 90.89% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $3.72 | 90.84% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $3.72 | 90.86% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $3.72 | 90.98% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.72 | 90.86% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $3.74 | 90.94% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $3.74 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.76 | 90.96% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $3.76 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.74 | 90.93% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% restricted 28.0% classified 12.0% consumer 10.0% mil spec 35.0% Mythical 14.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt