--- title: "Seance case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Seance ($29.20) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 96.30% over 620 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/seance rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Seance](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/seance) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Seance A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/seance?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/seance?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/seance) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/seance?window=all) Price · $29.20 · 41.71 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $26.54 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.30% · 620 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 44 openings · below min 7 days · 93.39% ±10.61 526 openings 30 days · 96.30% ±9.77 620 openings since tracking started · 96.30% ±9.77 620 openings 56.5% 93.5% 130.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/seance?window=24h) | 44 | 93.36% ±36.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/seance?window=7d) | 526 | 93.39% ±10.6 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/seance) | 620 | 96.30% ±9.77 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/seance?window=all) | 620 | 96.30% ±9.77 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 620 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,142 1,631 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $562 803 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| XANTARES (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xantares-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 200 | $265 378 coins | 5.0% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 333 | $194 277 coins | 2.2% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.08× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 143 | $122 174 coins | 3.2% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $118 169 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 125 | $106 152 coins | 3.2% | 10 | 5.0 | 2.02× | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $93.80 134 coins | 3.5% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.13× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $79.10 113 coins | 6.0% | 15 | 12.4 | 1.21× | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $74.90 107 coins | 14.1% | 28 | 31.0 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $74.20 106 coins | 8.4% | 21 | 18.6 | 1.13× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $51.29 73.27 coins | 11.6% | 30 | 37.2 | 0.81× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $38.91 55.59 coins | 3.7% | 20 | 15.5 | 1.29× | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $26.08 37.25 coins | 5.9% | 35 | 37.2 | 0.94× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $17.71 25.3 coins | 4.7% | 45 | 43.4 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| Pimp \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pimp-atlanta-2017) | 13.0% | $15.81 22.58 coins | 7.7% | 95 | 80.6 | 1.18× | | [Souvenir P90 \| Teardown (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-teardown-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $13.26 18.94 coins | 2.2% | 23 | 27.9 | 0.82× | | [SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 22.0% | $11.69 16.7 coins | 9.7% | 131 | 136.4 | 0.96× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 25.2% | $5.94 8.48 coins | 5.6% | 148 | 156.5 | 0.95× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $29.46 42.08 coins $565 807 coins 19.18x 2026-11-03 17:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=seance) [MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) [M1koGooD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/M1koGooD) $29.20 41.71 coins $5.94 8.48 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $29.20 41.71 coins $51.29 73.27 coins 1.76x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Teardown (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-teardown-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.20 41.71 coins $13.26 18.94 coins 0.45x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) Hidden $29.20 41.71 coins $11.69 16.7 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $29.20 41.71 coins $5.94 8.48 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $29.20 41.71 coins $5.94 8.48 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $29.20 41.71 coins $51.29 73.27 coins 1.76x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) [Gigachad](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gigachad) $29.20 41.71 coins $11.69 16.7 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) [Erez csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Erez%20csgoroll.com) $29.20 41.71 coins $5.94 8.48 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 08:09 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.20 41.71 coins $74.20 106 coins 2.54x 2026-11-11 08:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.20 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $29.42 | 90.91% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.46 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 7.0% covert 15.8% extraordinary 3.0% classified 7.4% mil spec 28.5% high 13.0% pink 25.2% best hit $565 (19.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt