--- title: "Serenade case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Serenade ($4.52) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.95% from 15 items with odds, observed 92.84% over 4,310 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serenade rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Serenade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serenade) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Serenade A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serenade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serenade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serenade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serenade?window=all) Price · $4.52 · 6.46 coins Advertised RTP · 90.95% · EV $4.11 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.84% · 4,310 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 44.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 55.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.28% ±8.69 561 openings 7 days · 93.51% ±3.31 3,796 openings 30 days · 92.84% ±3.11 4,310 openings since tracking started · 92.84% ±3.11 4,310 openings 88.0% 97.2% 106.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serenade?window=24h) | 561 | 97.28% ±8.69 | +1.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serenade?window=7d) | 3,796 | 93.51% ±3.31 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serenade) | 4,310 | 92.84% ±3.11 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serenade?window=all) | 4,310 | 92.84% ±3.11 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,322 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $98.70 141 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $76.30 109 coins | 0.6% | 5 | 1.3 | 3.86× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $61.58 87.97 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 526 | $52.11 74.44 coins | 2.4% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 769 | $47.66 68.09 coins | 1.5% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 357 | $39.00 55.71 coins | 2.7% | 14 | 12.1 | 1.16× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $30.58 43.69 coins | 0.7% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× | | [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $26.09 37.27 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 238 | $17.07 24.38 coins | 1.7% | 20 | 18.2 | 1.10× | | [P90 \| Attack Vector (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-factory-new) | 1 in 159 | $10.93 15.62 coins | 1.7% | 20 | 27.2 | 0.73× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 23.0% | $6.41 9.15 coins | 35.8% | 1,019 | 994.1 | 1.03× | | [Sticker \| Mood Ring Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mood-ring-strafe-holo) | 19.6% | $5.94 8.49 coins | 28.3% | 870 | 847.5 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $2.58 3.68 coins | 3.4% | 235 | 237.7 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-well-worn) | 26.0% | $1.65 2.36 coins | 10.4% | 1,098 | 1123.7 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-well-worn) | 24.0% | $1.56 2.23 coins | 9.1% | 1,022 | 1037.3 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=serenade) [AK-47 | Crossfade (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-well-worn) [DrWein](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DrWein) $4.52 6.46 coins $1.65 2.36 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-afterimage-factory-new) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $4.52 6.46 coins $52.11 74.44 coins 11.52x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [AK-47 | Crossfade (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-well-worn) [si^b^rO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/si%5Eb%5ErO) $4.52 6.46 coins $1.65 2.36 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [Sticker | Mood Ring Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mood-ring-strafe-holo) [DrWein](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DrWein) $4.52 6.46 coins $5.94 8.49 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-well-worn) Hidden $4.52 6.46 coins $1.56 2.23 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-well-worn) Hidden $4.52 6.46 coins $1.56 2.23 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.52 6.46 coins $6.41 9.15 coins 1.42x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [AK-47 | Crossfade (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-well-worn) Hidden $4.52 6.46 coins $1.65 2.36 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) Hidden $4.52 6.46 coins $2.58 3.68 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [Sticker | Mood Ring Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mood-ring-strafe-holo) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $4.52 6.46 coins $5.94 8.49 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.52 | 90.95% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.62 | 90.86% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.62 | 90.88% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% mil spec 0.0% rare 5.6% classified 0.2% uncommon 47.9% restricted 0.5% pink 0.0% remarkable 19.6% common 26.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.95 on average: an expected loss of $9.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt