---
title: "Serotonin case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Serotonin ($104.41) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 84.01% over 1,844 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serotonin
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Serotonin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serotonin)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Serotonin

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serotonin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serotonin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serotonin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serotonin?window=all)

Price · $104.41 · 149 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $94.92 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.01% · 1,844 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.30% ±41.59 171 openings

7 days · 86.46% ±14.00 1,450 openings

30 days · 84.01% ±12.38 1,844 openings

since tracking started · 84.01% ±12.38 1,844 openings

44.0% 86.3% 128.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serotonin?window=24h) | 171 | 86.30% ±41.6 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serotonin?window=7d) | 1,450 | 86.46% ±14.0 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serotonin) | 1,844 | 84.01% ±12.4 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serotonin?window=all) | 1,844 | 84.01% ±12.4 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,844 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) | 1 in 10,000 | $25K 35,730 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $6,941 9,915 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,545 2,207 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $617 882 coins | 3.3% | 5 | 9.2 | 0.54× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $390 557 coins | 12.3% | 50 | 55.3 | 0.90× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $274 392 coins | 5.8% | 35 | 36.9 | 0.95× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $225 321 coins | 11.8% | 100 | 92.2 | 1.08× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) | 11.4% | $164 234 coins | 19.7% | 206 | 210.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $131 187 coins | 11.0% | 155 | 147.5 | 1.05× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $107 153 coins | 11.3% | 188 | 184.4 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 12.0% | $38.40 54.86 coins | 4.9% | 209 | 221.3 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-factory-new) | 15.0% | $38.12 54.45 coins | 6.0% | 272 | 276.6 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $27.83 39.76 coins | 4.7% | 296 | 295.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) | 17.0% | $18.43 26.33 coins | 3.3% | 328 | 313.5 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $108 155 coins $635 907 coins 5.86x 2026-11-08 00:55 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) [EzHype](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/EzHype) $108 155 coins $635 907 coins 5.86x 2026-11-08 00:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $108 155 coins $635 907 coins 5.86x 2026-11-07 20:15 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $104 149 coins $617 882 coins 5.91x 2026-11-10 17:24 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $104 149 coins $617 882 coins 5.91x 2026-11-09 01:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=serotonin)

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-caiman-field-tested) Hidden $104 149 coins $38.40 54.86 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-factory-new) Hidden $104 149 coins $38.12 54.45 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $104 149 coins $27.83 39.76 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Legend) $104 149 coins $107 153 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $104 149 coins $107 153 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $104 149 coins $27.83 39.76 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MAG-7 | Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $104 149 coins $164 234 coins 1.57x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) [Legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Legend) $104 149 coins $274 392 coins 2.63x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MAG-7 | Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $104 149 coins $164 234 coins 1.57x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $104 149 coins $27.83 39.76 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $104 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $106 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $108 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $108 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed base 0.0% covert 28.6% mil spec 28.4% classified 12.0% industrial 31.0% best hit $635 (5.86x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt