--- title: "Serpent Nest case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Serpent Nest ($16.44) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 21 items with odds, observed 43.17% over 4,440 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent-nest rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Serpent Nest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent-nest) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Serpent Nest A case on CSGORoll (rifles, pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent-nest?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent-nest?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent-nest) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent-nest?window=all) Price · $16.44 · 23.49 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $14.95 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 43.17% · 4,440 openings, odds method Variance · 2098.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,111 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 519 openings · below min 7 days · 3,724 openings · below min 30 days · 4,440 openings · below min since tracking started · 4,440 openings · below min -0.5% 221.5% 443.5% **Small sample.** 4,440 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent-nest?window=24h) | 519 | 48.66% ±394.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent-nest?window=7d) | 3,724 | 41.64% ±146.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent-nest) | 4,440 | 43.17% ±134.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent-nest?window=all) | 4,440 | 43.17% ±134.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,440 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) 4x IBP Holo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $105K 150,000 coins | 35.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $5,684 8,120 coins | 13.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,069 2,955 coins | 6.9% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,921 2,745 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,820 2,600 coins | 6.1% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.35× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $888 1,269 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $646 923 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $532 760 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× | | [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $211 302 coins | 2.1% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.20× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $126 180 coins | 1.3% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.20× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $91.00 130 coins | 0.9% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.75× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $75.60 108 coins | 1.3% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.26× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $26.52 37.88 coins | 5.3% | 145 | 133.2 | 1.09× | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $26.08 37.25 coins | 5.2% | 130 | 133.2 | 0.98× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $23.07 32.95 coins | 4.6% | 125 | 133.2 | 0.94× | | [Sticker \| Fire Serpent Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fire-serpent-surf-k-foil) | 15.0% | $6.95 9.93 coins | 7.0% | 629 | 666.0 | 0.94× | | [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.34 1.91 coins | 1.3% | 666 | 666.0 | 1.00× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Fire Serpent graffiti · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-fire-serpent) | 15.0% | $1.24 1.77 coins | 1.2% | 664 | 666.0 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Baby Fire Serpent sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-fire-serpent) | 15.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 705 | 666.0 | 1.06× | | [Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 683 | 666.0 | 1.03× | | [Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-field-tested) | 15.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 651 | 666.0 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $16.55 23.64 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 125.4x 2026-11-05 06:18 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $16.55 23.64 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 125.4x 2026-11-04 10:21 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $16.44 23.49 coins $1,820 2,600 coins 110.7x 2026-11-11 11:25 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $16.44 23.49 coins $1,820 2,600 coins 110.7x 2026-11-10 09:15 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) [🔸Regular🔸](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%94%B8Regular%F0%9F%94%B8) $16.55 23.64 coins $1,792 2,560 coins 108.3x 2026-11-06 04:15 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) [User#878](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23878) $16.55 23.64 coins $923 1,319 coins 55.80x 2026-11-03 15:51 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $16.55 23.64 coins $655 935 coins 39.55x 2026-11-08 15:01 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.55 23.64 coins $540 771 coins 32.61x 2026-11-07 09:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=serpent-nest) [Sticker | Baby Fire Serpent sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-fire-serpent) Hidden $16.44 23.49 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Sticker | Fire Serpent Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fire-serpent-surf-k-foil) Hidden $16.44 23.49 coins $6.95 9.93 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-field-tested) Hidden $16.44 23.49 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Sticker | Baby Fire Serpent sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-fire-serpent) Hidden $16.44 23.49 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.44 23.49 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $16.44 23.49 coins $26.52 37.88 coins 1.61x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Sticker | Baby Fire Serpent sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-fire-serpent) Hidden $16.44 23.49 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [Sticker | Baby Fire Serpent sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-fire-serpent) Hidden $16.44 23.49 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [Sticker | Fire Serpent Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fire-serpent-surf-k-foil) Hidden $16.44 23.49 coins $6.95 9.93 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-field-tested) Hidden $16.44 23.49 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $16.44 | 90.90% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.44 | 90.89% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.50 | 90.90% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.55 | 90.90% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% covert 0.3% classified 0.1% extraordinary 0.4% mil spec 6.2% restricted 3.0% exotic 30.0% uncommon 15.0% Rare 15.0% industrial 30.0% best hit $2,076 (125.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt