--- title: "Serpent case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Serpent ($73.87) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 11 items with odds, observed 94.43% over 136 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Serpent](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Serpent A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent?window=all) Price · $73.87 · 106 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $67.15 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.43% · 136 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 55.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 20 openings · below min 7 days · 91.77% ±20.59 124 openings 30 days · 94.43% ±19.69 136 openings since tracking started · 94.43% ±19.69 136 openings 12.5% 63.7% 115.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent?window=24h) | 20 | 62.97% ±50.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent?window=7d) | 124 | 91.77% ±20.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent) | 136 | 94.43% ±19.7 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/serpent?window=all) | 136 | 94.43% ±19.7 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 136 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,000 1,429 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $598 854 coins | 4.5% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 345 | $557 795 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $454 648 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $437 624 coins | 13.0% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $330 472 coins | 4.9% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.47× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $156 223 coins | 7.0% | 8 | 4.1 | 1.96× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $73.50 105 coins | 3.3% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Foil) \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) | 45.0% | $51.42 73.45 coins | 34.5% | 65 | 61.2 | 1.06× | | [Sticker \| Splyce (Foil) \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-splyce-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) | 45.0% | $42.50 60.72 coins | 28.5% | 55 | 61.2 | 0.90× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $71.88 103 coins $597 853 coins 8.31x 2026-11-06 01:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $71.88 103 coins $597 853 coins 8.31x 2026-11-04 17:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=serpent) [Sticker | Cloud9 (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) Hidden $73.87 106 coins $51.42 73.45 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Sticker | Cloud9 (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) Hidden $73.87 106 coins $51.42 73.45 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Sticker | Splyce (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-splyce-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) Hidden $73.87 106 coins $42.50 60.72 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Sticker | Cloud9 (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) Hidden $73.87 106 coins $51.42 73.45 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Sticker | Splyce (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-splyce-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) Hidden $73.87 106 coins $42.50 60.72 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Sticker | Splyce (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-splyce-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) [Queen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Queen) $73.87 106 coins $42.50 60.72 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Sticker | Splyce (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-splyce-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) Hidden $73.87 106 coins $42.50 60.72 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Sticker | Cloud9 (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) Hidden $73.87 106 coins $51.42 73.45 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Sticker | Cloud9 (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) Hidden $73.87 106 coins $51.42 73.45 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Sticker | Splyce (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-splyce-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) Hidden $73.87 106 coins $42.50 60.72 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $73.87 | 90.90% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $71.69 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $71.88 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.9% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 2.0% gold 1.0% exotic 90.0% best hit $597 (8.31x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt