--- title: "Sex Haver case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sex Haver ($30.38) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 17 items with odds, observed 81.85% over 5,852 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sex-haver rendered: 2026-11-11T23:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sex Haver](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sex-haver) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sex Haver A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sex-haver?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sex-haver?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sex-haver) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sex-haver?window=all) Price · $30.38 · 43.4 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $27.62 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.85% · 5,852 openings, odds method Variance · 142.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 32 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.10% ±113.08 428 openings 7 days · 76.97% ±34.70 4,492 openings 30 days · 81.85% ±30.36 5,852 openings since tracking started · 81.85% ±30.36 5,852 openings -0.5% 102.3% 205.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sex-haver?window=24h) | 428 | 91.10% ±113.1 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sex-haver?window=7d) | 4,492 | 76.97% ±34.7 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sex-haver) | 5,852 | 81.85% ±30.4 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sex-haver?window=all) | 5,852 | 81.85% ±30.4 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,852 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-reason-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $98K 140,000 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x IBP (Holo) (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear-4x-ibp-holo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $26.3K 37,500 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 2.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $856 1,223 coins | 15.5% | 33 | 29.3 | 1.13× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $477 682 coins | 13.8% | 43 | 46.8 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $336 480 coins | 9.7% | 36 | 46.8 | 0.77× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $211 302 coins | 7.7% | 57 | 58.5 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $202 288 coins | 7.3% | 46 | 58.5 | 0.79× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $134 192 coins | 9.0% | 122 | 108.0 | 1.13× | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $82.60 118 coins | 3.0% | 56 | 58.5 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $72.80 104 coins | 5.3% | 119 | 117.0 | 1.02× | | [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $66.61 95.16 coins | 4.8% | 109 | 117.0 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $59.09 84.41 coins | 6.4% | 174 | 175.6 | 0.99× | | [SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $49.41 70.59 coins | 3.6% | 111 | 117.0 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $29.78 42.55 coins | 4.3% | 229 | 234.1 | 0.98× | | [AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.10 0.14 coins | 0.1% | 2,306 | 2340.8 | 0.99× | | [AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 40.0% | $0.08 0.11 coins | 0.1% | 2,408 | 2340.8 | 1.03× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $30.75 43.93 coins $1,149 1,642 coins 37.38x 2026-11-06 21:30 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $30.38 43.4 coins $1,114 1,591 coins 36.66x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $30.38 43.4 coins $1,114 1,591 coins 36.66x 2026-11-11 11:14 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $30.75 43.93 coins $875 1,250 coins 28.45x 2026-11-08 11:58 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $30.75 43.93 coins $875 1,250 coins 28.45x 2026-11-08 01:03 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $30.75 43.93 coins $875 1,250 coins 28.45x 2026-11-07 16:04 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $30.75 43.93 coins $875 1,250 coins 28.45x 2026-11-07 15:43 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $30.75 43.93 coins $875 1,250 coins 28.45x 2026-11-07 14:02 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [FlashKing](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/FlashKing) $30.75 43.93 coins $875 1,250 coins 28.45x 2026-11-06 23:18 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $30.75 43.93 coins $875 1,250 coins 28.45x 2026-11-06 16:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sex-haver) [AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $30.38 43.4 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [AUG | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-well-worn) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $30.38 43.4 coins $0.08 0.11 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $30.38 43.4 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [AUG | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-well-worn) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $30.38 43.4 coins $0.08 0.11 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:36 UTC [AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) Hidden $30.38 43.4 coins $29.78 42.55 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 22:36 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $30.38 43.4 coins $856 1,223 coins 28.18x 2026-11-11 22:36 UTC [AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-field-tested) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $30.38 43.4 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC [AUG | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-well-worn) Hidden $30.38 43.4 coins $0.08 0.11 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC [AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $30.38 43.4 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC [AUG | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-well-worn) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $30.38 43.4 coins $0.08 0.11 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $30.38 | 90.92% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.38 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.46 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.75 | 90.90% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% classified 7.9% covert 4.1% violet 2.0% restricted 2.0% Ancient 4.0% common 80.0% best hit $1,149 (37.38x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt