--- title: "Shade case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Shade ($49.08) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 95.25% over 98 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shade rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Shade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shade) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Shade A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shade?window=all) Price · $49.08 · 70.11 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $44.62 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.25% · 98 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 91 openings · below min 30 days · 98 openings · below min since tracking started · 98 openings · below min 68.0% 97.2% 126.5% **Small sample.** 98 openings and 17.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shade?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shade?window=7d) | 91 | 98.26% ±27.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shade) | 98 | 95.25% ±26.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shade?window=all) | 98 | 95.25% ±26.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $638 912 coins | 7.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $329 470 coins | 11.1% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.36× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $218 312 coins | 9.8% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $155 221 coins | 8.7% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.04× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $85.40 122 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $65.65 93.78 coins | 11.8% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $61.73 88.18 coins | 9.7% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.73× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $47.31 67.59 coins | 12.7% | 13 | 11.8 | 1.11× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 15.0% | $22.79 32.56 coins | 7.7% | 11 | 14.7 | 0.75× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 18.0% | $20.69 29.55 coins | 8.3% | 17 | 17.6 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 18.5% | $11.92 17.03 coins | 4.9% | 20 | 18.1 | 1.10× | | [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-well-worn) | 12.0% | $9.14 13.05 coins | 2.5% | 17 | 11.8 | 1.45× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Lars 🐔](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars%20%F0%9F%90%94) $50.43 72.04 coins $638 912 coins 12.66x 2026-11-04 17:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=shade) [★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $49.08 70.11 coins $329 470 coins 6.70x 2026-11-10 12:24 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-well-worn) Hidden $49.08 70.11 coins $155 221 coins 3.15x 2026-11-10 12:24 UTC [Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $49.08 70.11 coins $65.65 93.78 coins 1.34x 2026-11-10 12:24 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-well-worn) Hidden $49.08 70.11 coins $155 221 coins 3.15x 2026-11-10 12:24 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) Hidden $49.08 70.11 coins $47.31 67.59 coins 0.96x 2026-11-10 12:24 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) [m3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m3) $49.08 70.11 coins $20.69 29.55 coins 0.42x 2026-11-10 12:24 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $49.08 70.11 coins $11.92 17.03 coins 0.24x 2026-11-09 23:14 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) Hidden $49.08 70.11 coins $20.69 29.55 coins 0.42x 2026-11-09 23:14 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $49.08 70.11 coins $11.92 17.03 coins 0.24x 2026-11-09 23:14 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-well-worn) [Getskin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Getskin) $49.08 70.11 coins $9.14 13.05 coins 0.19x 2026-11-09 23:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $49.08 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $50.39 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.43 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.5% covert 13.5% extraordinary 2.5% industrial 20.0% classified 12.0% violet 15.0% restricted 36.5% best hit $638 (12.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt