---
title: "Shaka Bra case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Shaka Bra ($140.64) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 81.07% over 130 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shaka-bra
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Shaka Bra](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shaka-bra)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Shaka Bra

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shaka-bra?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shaka-bra?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shaka-bra) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shaka-bra?window=all)

Price · $140.64 · 201 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $127.85 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.07% · 130 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 10 openings · below min

7 days · 80.76% ±27.81 119 openings

30 days · 81.07% ±26.61 130 openings

since tracking started · 81.07% ±26.61 130 openings

-0.5% 80.0% 160.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shaka-bra?window=24h) | 10 | 63.45% ±96.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shaka-bra?window=7d) | 119 | 80.76% ±27.8 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shaka-bra) | 130 | 81.07% ±26.6 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shaka-bra?window=all) | 130 | 81.07% ±26.6 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 130 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $1,809 2,585 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,600 2,285 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,161 1,658 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,050 1,500 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $799 1,142 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Sticker \| rain (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 50 | $704 1,005 coins | 11.0% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.54× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $627 896 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $563 804 coins | 6.6% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $421 602 coins | 19.8% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $310 443 coins | 4.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $309 442 coins | 4.8% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $268 383 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 17 | $167 239 coins | 7.9% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $115 164 coins | 3.6% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $102 145 coins | 1.6% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.54× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 25.0% | $51.07 72.95 coins | 10.0% | 32 | 32.5 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 20.0% | $42.24 60.34 coins | 6.6% | 29 | 26.0 | 1.12× |
| [Patch \| Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) | 26.6% | $16.29 23.27 coins | 3.4% | 35 | 34.6 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | rain (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $141 201 coins $704 1,005 coins 5.00x 2026-11-08 23:54 UTC

[Sticker | rain (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $142 204 coins $704 1,005 coins 4.94x 2026-11-08 16:01 UTC

[Sticker | rain (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $143 204 coins $704 1,005 coins 4.93x 2026-11-08 15:21 UTC

[Sticker | rain (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $143 204 coins $704 1,005 coins 4.93x 2026-11-04 19:54 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [m3n1ce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m3n1ce) $143 204 coins $573 818 coins 4.01x 2026-11-07 22:46 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $143 204 coins $573 818 coins 4.01x 2026-11-07 01:24 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [tompa3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tompa3) $143 204 coins $573 818 coins 4.01x 2026-11-06 23:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=shaka-bra)

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $141 201 coins $42.24 60.34 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Jet Set (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-minimal-wear) Hidden $141 201 coins $421 602 coins 3.00x 2026-11-11 09:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) [戏小阳](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E6%88%8F%E5%B0%8F%E9%98%B3) $141 201 coins $51.07 72.95 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 09:04 UTC

[Patch | Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) Hidden $141 201 coins $16.29 23.27 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 01:01 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $141 201 coins $167 239 coins 1.19x 2026-11-10 22:54 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $141 201 coins $42.24 60.34 coins 0.30x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) [Pekkatron](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pekkatron) $141 201 coins $51.07 72.95 coins 0.36x 2026-11-10 22:29 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $141 201 coins $42.24 60.34 coins 0.30x 2026-11-10 19:06 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $141 201 coins $42.24 60.34 coins 0.30x 2026-11-10 18:31 UTC

[Patch | Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) [☠☣ Isti0308 ☣☠](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%98%A0%E2%98%A3%20%20Isti0308%20%E2%98%A3%E2%98%A0) $141 201 coins $16.29 23.27 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 15:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $141 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $141 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $143 | 90.91% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 57.4% extraordinary 8.3% legendary 0.3% rare 1.5% classified 6.0% remarkable 26.6% best hit $704 (5.00x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt