--- title: "Shank case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Shank ($75.54) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 97.61% over 70 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shank rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Shank](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shank) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Shank A case on CSGORoll (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shank?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shank?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shank) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shank?window=all) Price · $75.54 · 108 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $68.68 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.61% · 70 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 48 openings · below min 30 days · 70 openings · below min since tracking started · 70 openings · below min 70.5% 100.5% 130.5% **Small sample.** 70 openings and 12.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shank?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shank?window=7d) | 48 | 100.69% ±29.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shank) | 70 | 97.61% ±24.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shank?window=all) | 70 | 97.61% ±24.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 70 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,514 2,163 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $799 1,141 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 250 | $443 633 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 80 | $363 519 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $316 452 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $286 409 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $215 307 coins | 7.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $195 278 coins | 8.5% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $140 200 coins | 8.2% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $123 176 coins | 9.0% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $85.40 122 coins | 7.5% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 15.0% | $65.32 93.31 coins | 14.3% | 10 | 10.5 | 0.95× | | [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 12.0% | $45.38 64.83 coins | 7.9% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.31× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 18.0% | $45.21 64.58 coins | 11.8% | 11 | 12.6 | 0.87× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 12.0% | $17.71 25.3 coins | 3.1% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 18.5% | $6.38 9.11 coins | 1.7% | 14 | 12.9 | 1.08× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $76.59 109 coins $824 1,177 coins 10.76x 2026-11-07 03:35 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=shank) [StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) Hidden $75.54 108 coins $6.38 9.11 coins 0.08x 2026-11-09 18:02 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $75.54 108 coins $65.32 93.31 coins 0.86x 2026-11-09 18:02 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) [\`FluffyFlow⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%60FluffyFlow%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $75.54 108 coins $17.71 25.3 coins 0.23x 2026-11-09 18:02 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) Hidden $75.54 108 coins $6.38 9.11 coins 0.08x 2026-11-09 04:25 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) [Taylor Swift Fan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Taylor%20Swift%20Fan) $75.54 108 coins $45.21 64.58 coins 0.60x 2026-11-09 04:25 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $75.54 108 coins $17.71 25.3 coins 0.23x 2026-11-09 04:25 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $75.54 108 coins $140 200 coins 1.85x 2026-11-09 04:25 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) Hidden $75.54 108 coins $45.21 64.58 coins 0.60x 2026-11-09 04:25 UTC [★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $75.54 108 coins $195 278 coins 2.58x 2026-11-09 04:25 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) [Ridwan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ridwan) $76.59 109 coins $65.68 93.83 coins 0.86x 2026-11-08 00:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $75.54 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $76.03 | 90.91% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $76.59 | 90.91% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 39.5% classified 42.0% restricted 18.5% best hit $824 (10.76x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt