--- title: "Shapeshifter case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Shapeshifter ($22.52) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 14 items with odds, observed 91.78% over 1,099 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shapeshifter rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Shapeshifter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shapeshifter) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Shapeshifter A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shapeshifter?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shapeshifter?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shapeshifter) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shapeshifter?window=all) Price · $22.52 · 32.17 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $20.47 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.78% · 1,099 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 66 openings · below min 7 days · 92.05% ±7.62 922 openings 30 days · 91.78% ±6.98 1,099 openings since tracking started · 91.78% ±6.98 1,099 openings 79.5% 108.5% 137.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shapeshifter?window=24h) | 66 | 108.36% ±28.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shapeshifter?window=7d) | 922 | 92.05% ±7.62 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shapeshifter) | 1,099 | 91.78% ±6.98 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shapeshifter?window=all) | 1,099 | 91.78% ±6.98 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,103 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $723 1,033 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $260 372 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 2,000 | $246 352 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $77.70 111 coins | 38.0% | 109 | 110.3 | 0.99× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $52.35 74.78 coins | 7.7% | 19 | 33.1 | 0.57× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $51.30 73.29 coins | 25.1% | 128 | 110.3 | 1.16× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $40.04 57.2 coins | 5.9% | 47 | 33.1 | 1.42× | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $27.83 39.76 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 10.0% | $19.25 27.5 coins | 9.4% | 109 | 110.3 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $17.47 24.95 coins | 4.3% | 48 | 55.2 | 0.87× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 15.0% | $5.22 7.46 coins | 3.8% | 164 | 165.5 | 0.99× | | [Tec-9 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-tornado-field-tested) | 10.8% | $4.59 6.56 coins | 2.4% | 123 | 119.6 | 1.03× | | [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $1.95 2.78 coins | 1.7% | 202 | 198.5 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-module-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.13 1.61 coins | 0.8% | 154 | 165.5 | 0.93× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=shapeshifter) [MAG-7 | Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) Hidden $22.52 32.17 coins $5.22 7.46 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $22.52 32.17 coins $40.04 57.2 coins 1.78x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) [BRÄTT \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BR%C3%84TT%20%3C3) $22.52 32.17 coins $51.30 73.29 coins 2.28x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $22.52 32.17 coins $51.30 73.29 coins 2.28x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [MAG-7 | Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $22.52 32.17 coins $5.22 7.46 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [AUG | Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.52 32.17 coins $77.70 111 coins 3.45x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.52 32.17 coins $51.30 73.29 coins 2.28x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.52 32.17 coins $17.47 24.95 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) [Terroristi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Terroristi) $22.52 32.17 coins $1.95 2.78 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Module (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-module-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.52 32.17 coins $1.13 1.61 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $22.52 | 90.90% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.51 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.43 | 90.92% | 14 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $22.42 | 90.90% | 14 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $22.42 | 90.92% | 14 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $22.39 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.39 | 90.92% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 23.1% restricted 3.0% industrial 0.1% classified 30.0% consumer 10.8% mil spec 33.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt