---
title: "Shark Tank case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Shark Tank ($15.08) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 88.89% over 8,861 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shark-tank
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Shark Tank](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shark-tank)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Shark Tank

A case on CSGORoll (knives, 20%, awp, rifles), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shark-tank?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shark-tank?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shark-tank) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shark-tank?window=all)

Price · $15.08 · 21.54 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $13.71 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.89% · 8,861 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.88% ±12.29 1,036 openings

7 days · 88.42% ±4.61 7,361 openings

30 days · 88.89% ±4.20 8,861 openings

since tracking started · 88.89% ±4.20 8,861 openings

77.0% 90.0% 103.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shark-tank?window=24h) | 1,036 | 89.88% ±12.3 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shark-tank?window=7d) | 7,361 | 88.42% ±4.61 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shark-tank) | 8,861 | 88.89% ±4.20 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shark-tank?window=all) | 8,861 | 88.89% ±4.20 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,913 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 200,000 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $551 787 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $446 637 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $315 450 coins | 2.3% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.90× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $179 256 coins | 9.2% | 76 | 62.4 | 1.22× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $116 166 coins | 8.5% | 80 | 89.1 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $68.93 98.47 coins | 10.1% | 169 | 178.3 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $67.53 96.47 coins | 12.3% | 212 | 222.8 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $62.27 88.95 coins | 13.6% | 269 | 267.4 | 1.01× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $52.51 75.02 coins | 12.7% | 282 | 294.9 | 0.96× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $36.55 52.21 coins | 10.2% | 326 | 341.4 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $11.91 17.02 coins | 3.9% | 449 | 401.1 | 1.12× |
| [Sticker \| Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) | 1 in 11 | $7.69 10.98 coins | 5.0% | 800 | 802.2 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.84 6.91 coins | 3.5% | 871 | 891.3 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Purple Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-purple-jaggyfish) | 20.0% | $1.57 2.24 coins | 2.3% | 1,858 | 1782.6 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Pink Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pink-jaggyfish) | 20.0% | $1.44 2.06 coins | 2.1% | 1,726 | 1782.6 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Black Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-black-jaggyfish) | 20.0% | $1.41 2.01 coins | 2.1% | 1,785 | 1782.6 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 21.54 coins $567 810 coins 37.60x 2026-11-05 16:42 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=shark-tank)

[Sticker | Pink Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pink-jaggyfish) Hidden $15.08 21.54 coins $1.44 2.06 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC

[Sticker | Black Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-black-jaggyfish) Hidden $15.08 21.54 coins $1.41 2.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC

[Sticker | Purple Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-purple-jaggyfish) [hieschdavid](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hieschdavid) $15.08 21.54 coins $1.57 2.24 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC

[Sticker | Purple Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-purple-jaggyfish) Hidden $15.08 21.54 coins $1.57 2.24 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC

[Sticker | Purple Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-purple-jaggyfish) [Ra-Kun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ra-Kun) $15.08 21.54 coins $1.57 2.24 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC

[Sticker | Purple Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-purple-jaggyfish) Hidden $15.08 21.54 coins $1.57 2.24 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC

[MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 21.54 coins $4.84 6.91 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC

[USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.08 21.54 coins $68.93 98.47 coins 4.57x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC

[Sticker | Purple Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-purple-jaggyfish) Hidden $15.08 21.54 coins $1.57 2.24 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC

[Sticker | Black Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-black-jaggyfish) Hidden $15.08 21.54 coins $1.41 2.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.08 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.13 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.08 | 90.91% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 11.5% classified 0.0% restricted 9.5% exotic 9.0% mil spec 10.0% high 60.0% best hit $567 (37.60x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt