---
title: "Sharpened case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sharpened ($38.28) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 29 items with odds, observed 107.97% over 1,414 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sharpened
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sharpened](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sharpened)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sharpened

A case on CSGORoll (knives, 20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sharpened?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sharpened?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sharpened) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sharpened?window=all)

Price · $38.28 · 54.69 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $34.80 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 107.97% · 1,414 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 43 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 202 openings · below min

7 days · 110.24% ±21.43 1,135 openings

30 days · 107.97% ±19.19 1,414 openings

since tracking started · 107.97% ±19.19 1,414 openings

52.5% 104.0% 155.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sharpened?window=24h) | 202 | 103.89% ±50.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sharpened?window=7d) | 1,135 | 110.24% ±21.4 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sharpened) | 1,414 | 107.97% ±19.2 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sharpened?window=all) | 1,414 | 107.97% ±19.2 | +1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,414 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,464 3,520 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,883 2,690 coins | 5.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,658 2,368 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,551 2,216 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,544 2,206 coins | 3.5% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.77× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,438 2,054 coins | 2.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,194 1,706 coins | 3.1% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.57× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 667 | $1,108 1,583 coins | 4.8% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 667 | $1,081 1,544 coins | 4.7% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.89× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 500 | $891 1,273 coins | 5.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 500 | $762 1,088 coins | 4.4% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.77× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 400 | $536 766 coins | 3.9% | 7 | 3.5 | 1.98× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $507 725 coins | 4.4% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $410 585 coins | 3.5% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $333 475 coins | 3.3% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.41× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $303 433 coins | 3.5% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.06× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $256 366 coins | 3.7% | 9 | 7.1 | 1.27× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $235 336 coins | 5.1% | 13 | 10.6 | 1.23× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $178 254 coins | 3.8% | 13 | 10.6 | 1.23× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $168 240 coins | 2.9% | 12 | 8.5 | 1.41× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $118 169 coins | 3.4% | 16 | 14.1 | 1.13× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $91.70 131 coins | 4.0% | 30 | 21.2 | 1.41× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $77.00 110 coins | 2.7% | 15 | 17.0 | 0.88× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $62.41 89.15 coins | 5.4% | 49 | 42.4 | 1.16× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $54.30 77.57 coins | 9.4% | 85 | 84.8 | 1.00× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $53.78 76.83 coins | 3.1% | 28 | 28.3 | 0.99× |
| [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 30.0% | $0.55 0.79 coins | 0.5% | 383 | 424.2 | 0.90× |
| [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 20.0% | $0.51 0.73 coins | 0.3% | 260 | 282.8 | 0.92× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) | 30.0% | $0.43 0.62 coins | 0.4% | 453 | 424.2 | 1.07× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) [jK^](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/jK%5E) $38.28 54.69 coins $1,883 2,690 coins 49.19x 2026-11-09 23:01 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $38.28 54.69 coins $1,544 2,206 coins 40.34x 2026-11-11 10:28 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $38.65 55.22 coins $1,509 2,156 coins 39.04x 2026-11-05 10:38 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $38.65 55.22 coins $1,461 2,087 coins 37.79x 2026-11-04 00:35 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Robond](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Robond) $38.65 55.22 coins $1,248 1,783 coins 32.29x 2026-11-08 01:38 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $38.28 54.69 coins $1,194 1,706 coins 31.19x 2026-11-10 16:37 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $38.65 55.22 coins $1,142 1,632 coins 29.55x 2026-11-08 01:36 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $38.28 54.69 coins $1,108 1,583 coins 28.94x 2026-11-10 02:43 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $38.28 54.69 coins $1,081 1,544 coins 28.23x 2026-11-09 20:38 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $38.65 55.22 coins $1,077 1,538 coins 27.85x 2026-11-07 20:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sharpened)

[Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) Hidden $38.28 54.69 coins $0.55 0.79 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) [ChrasťoušekS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Chras%C5%A5ou%C5%A1ekS) $38.28 54.69 coins $0.43 0.62 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $38.28 54.69 coins $54.30 77.57 coins 1.42x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) Hidden $38.28 54.69 coins $0.43 0.62 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:28 UTC

[Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) Hidden $38.28 54.69 coins $0.55 0.79 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:28 UTC

[Charm | That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) Hidden $38.28 54.69 coins $0.51 0.73 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:28 UTC

[Charm | That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) Hidden $38.28 54.69 coins $0.51 0.73 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:28 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $38.28 54.69 coins $0.43 0.62 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:28 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $38.28 54.69 coins $1,544 2,206 coins 40.34x 2026-11-11 10:28 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) [-hg- Stain](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/-hg-%20Stain) $38.28 54.69 coins $0.43 0.62 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $38.28 | 90.91% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $38.29 | 90.91% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $38.30 | 90.91% | 29 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $38.65 | 90.90% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 18.3% gold 1.5% epic 0.3% uncommon 80.0% best hit $1,883 (49.19x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt