---
title: "Shattered case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Shattered ($70.71) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 84.89% over 564 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shattered
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Shattered](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shattered)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Shattered

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shattered?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shattered?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shattered) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shattered?window=all)

Price · $70.71 · 101 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $64.29 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.89% · 564 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 23 openings · below min

7 days · 84.99% ±10.43 470 openings

30 days · 84.89% ±9.53 564 openings

since tracking started · 84.89% ±9.53 564 openings

54.0% 101.5% 149.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shattered?window=24h) | 23 | 101.38% ±46.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shattered?window=7d) | 470 | 84.99% ±10.4 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shattered) | 564 | 84.89% ±9.53 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shattered?window=all) | 564 | 84.89% ±9.53 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 566 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,212 3,160 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,713 2,447 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,035 1,478 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $606 865 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $571 815 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 333 | $274 391 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $192 274 coins | 17.9% | 36 | 34.0 | 1.06× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $149 213 coins | 9.3% | 13 | 22.6 | 0.57× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $142 203 coins | 2.2% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.06× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $135 193 coins | 6.3% | 17 | 17.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $91.00 130 coins | 11.3% | 43 | 45.3 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 10.0% | $84.70 121 coins | 13.2% | 57 | 56.6 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 12.0% | $53.17 75.95 coins | 9.9% | 68 | 67.9 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 27.0% | $49.41 70.59 coins | 20.8% | 158 | 152.8 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 28.4% | $6.38 9.11 coins | 2.8% | 166 | 160.6 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $70.41 101 coins $581 830 coins 8.25x 2026-11-03 15:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=shattered)

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $53.17 75.95 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $6.38 9.11 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $70.71 101 coins $6.38 9.11 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $49.41 70.59 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $84.70 121 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $6.38 9.11 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC

[MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) [ALEXANDRU](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ALEXANDRU) $70.71 101 coins $91.00 130 coins 1.29x 2026-11-11 16:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $49.41 70.59 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC

[MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $70.71 101 coins $192 274 coins 2.71x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) [ᗪᗩᑎY G](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E1%97%AA%E1%97%A9%E1%91%8EY%20G) $70.71 101 coins $135 193 coins 1.91x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $70.71 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $70.77 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $70.41 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 20.6% mil spec 33.0% restricted 36.4% classified 10.0% best hit $581 (8.25x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt