---
title: "Shellshock case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Shellshock ($59.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 158.49% over 14 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shellshock
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Shellshock](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shellshock)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Shellshock

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shellshock?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shellshock?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shellshock) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shellshock?window=all)

Price · $59.99 · 85.7 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $54.54 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 158.49% · 14 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 10 openings · below min

30 days · 14 openings · below min

since tracking started · 14 openings · below min

83.0% 181.0% 279.0%

**Small sample.** 14 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shellshock?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shellshock?window=7d) | 10 | 189.62% ±88.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shellshock) | 14 | 158.49% ±74.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shellshock?window=all) | 14 | 158.49% ±74.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,244 3,205 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,411 2,015 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,292 1,845 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $947 1,353 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $493 705 coins | 9.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50 | $284 406 coins | 10.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $183 261 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 12.0% | $174 249 coins | 38.4% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $79.10 113 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $56.39 80.56 coins | 7.2% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $43.77 62.53 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 10.9% | $22.48 32.12 coins | 4.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.31× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $10.65 15.22 coins | 3.9% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $5.75 8.21 coins | 1.9% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.19× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) | 14.0% | $1.50 2.14 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) [Spreeko](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Spreeko) $60.24 86.06 coins $507 725 coins 8.42x 2026-11-06 23:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=shellshock)

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) Hidden $60.24 86.06 coins $55.96 79.95 coins 0.93x 2026-11-08 00:56 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Minorityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Minorityy) $60.24 86.06 coins $290 414 coins 4.81x 2026-11-08 00:56 UTC

[M4A1-S | Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) [NorthWoods1962](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/NorthWoods1962) $60.24 86.06 coins $5.65 8.07 coins 0.09x 2026-11-06 23:44 UTC

[★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) [Spreeko](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Spreeko) $60.24 86.06 coins $507 725 coins 8.42x 2026-11-06 23:44 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) [PoRRo-MoRRo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PoRRo-MoRRo) $60.24 86.06 coins $55.96 79.95 coins 0.93x 2026-11-06 23:44 UTC

[Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) [Budget StArK↘️↗✯⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Budget%20StArK%E2%86%98%EF%B8%8F%E2%86%97%E2%9C%AF%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $60.24 86.06 coins $21.39 30.56 coins 0.36x 2026-11-06 23:44 UTC

[P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $60.24 86.06 coins $1.53 2.19 coins 0.03x 2026-11-06 22:34 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.24 86.06 coins $12.29 17.56 coins 0.20x 2026-11-06 22:34 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) [Carry](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Carry) $60.24 86.06 coins $171 244 coins 2.84x 2026-11-06 22:34 UTC

[Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) [Budget StArK↘️↗✯⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Budget%20StArK%E2%86%98%EF%B8%8F%E2%86%97%E2%9C%AF%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $60.24 86.06 coins $21.39 30.56 coins 0.36x 2026-11-06 22:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $59.99 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $60.43 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $60.24 | 90.90% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% legendary 0.0% covert 22.1% mil spec 8.0% classified 37.9% Rare 18.0% restricted 14.0% best hit $507 (8.42x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt