--- title: "Shock case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Shock ($30.58) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 90.95% over 476 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shock rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Shock](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shock) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Shock A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shock?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shock?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shock) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shock?window=all) Price · $30.58 · 43.69 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $27.80 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.95% · 476 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 25 openings · below min 7 days · 89.91% ±15.26 452 openings 30 days · 90.95% ±14.87 476 openings since tracking started · 90.95% ±14.87 476 openings -0.5% 62.0% 124.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shock?window=24h) | 25 | 59.13% ±64.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shock?window=7d) | 452 | 89.91% ±15.3 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shock) | 476 | 90.95% ±14.9 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shock?window=all) | 476 | 90.95% ±14.9 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 476 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $650 928 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $218 312 coins | 39.3% | 25 | 23.8 | 1.05× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $200 286 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $152 217 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $123 176 coins | 5.3% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $117 167 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $116 166 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $111 159 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $111 159 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 154 | $87.50 125 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $61.54 87.92 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $59.91 85.58 coins | 3.2% | 7 | 7.1 | 0.98× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $54.03 77.18 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $47.80 68.28 coins | 5.2% | 23 | 14.3 | 1.61× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $44.31 63.3 coins | 12.8% | 41 | 38.1 | 1.08× | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $30.62 43.74 coins | 6.6% | 24 | 28.6 | 0.84× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $29.14 41.63 coins | 11.5% | 44 | 52.4 | 0.84× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 11.7% | $17.88 25.55 coins | 7.5% | 53 | 55.8 | 0.95× | | [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.06 0.09 coins | 0.0% | 72 | 71.4 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.06 0.08 coins | 0.0% | 72 | 71.4 | 1.01× | | [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 102 | 95.2 | 1.07× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=shock) [Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $30.58 43.69 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $30.58 43.69 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC [Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-battle-scarred) Hidden $30.58 43.69 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $30.58 43.69 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC [Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-battle-scarred) [Tiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tiny%20Tim.CsgoRoll.com) $30.58 43.69 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC [Desert Eagle | Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) Hidden $30.58 43.69 coins $30.62 43.74 coins 1.00x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC [Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-battle-scarred) Hidden $30.58 43.69 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:36 UTC [Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-battle-scarred) [babylaffytaffy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/babylaffytaffy) $30.58 43.69 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:36 UTC [USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) Hidden $30.58 43.69 coins $17.88 25.55 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 04:36 UTC [AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) [Medical Shit](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Medical%20Shit) $30.58 43.69 coins $29.14 41.63 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 04:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $30.58 | 90.91% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.58 | 90.91% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.46 | 90.90% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $30.62 | 90.91% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.62 | 90.90% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 27.4% restricted 15.9% classified 0.7% rare 6.0% industrial 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt