--- title: "Shockwave case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Shockwave ($78.53) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 86.84% over 1,656 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shockwave rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Shockwave](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shockwave) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Shockwave A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shockwave?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shockwave?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shockwave) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shockwave?window=all) Price · $78.53 · 112 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $71.38 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.84% · 1,656 openings, odds method Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 79 openings · below min 7 days · 89.26% ±14.54 917 openings 30 days · 86.84% ±10.82 1,656 openings since tracking started · 86.84% ±10.82 1,656 openings 42.0% 92.3% 142.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shockwave?window=24h) | 79 | 92.21% ±49.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shockwave?window=7d) | 917 | 89.26% ±14.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shockwave) | 1,656 | 86.84% ±10.8 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/shockwave?window=all) | 1,656 | 86.84% ±10.8 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,656 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,281 6,115 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,230 3,185 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 500 | $2,079 2,970 coins | 5.8% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,724 2,463 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $762 1,088 coins | 5.3% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.09× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $430 614 coins | 48.2% | 135 | 132.5 | 1.02× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $406 580 coins | 11.4% | 24 | 33.1 | 0.72× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $323 461 coins | 9.0% | 27 | 33.1 | 0.82× | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $295 421 coins | 4.1% | 9 | 16.6 | 0.54× | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $178 254 coins | 7.5% | 43 | 49.7 | 0.87× | | [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $159 227 coins | 7.2% | 58 | 53.7 | 1.08× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 677 | 662.4 | 1.02× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 669 | 662.4 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $80.89 116 coins $2,107 3,010 coins 26.05x 2026-11-05 22:34 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $80.89 116 coins $2,107 3,010 coins 26.05x 2026-11-04 22:06 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $80.89 116 coins $2,107 3,010 coins 26.05x 2026-11-03 22:39 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $80.89 116 coins $2,107 3,010 coins 26.05x 2026-11-03 04:26 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) Hidden $80.89 116 coins $1,730 2,471 coins 21.38x 2026-11-07 23:35 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) Hidden $80.89 116 coins $1,730 2,471 coins 21.38x 2026-11-03 04:21 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.89 116 coins $797 1,138 coins 9.85x 2026-11-07 09:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [ROBOTAIM](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ROBOTAIM) $80.89 116 coins $797 1,138 coins 9.85x 2026-11-07 02:34 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.89 116 coins $797 1,138 coins 9.85x 2026-11-06 17:52 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.89 116 coins $797 1,138 coins 9.85x 2026-11-04 12:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=shockwave) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $78.53 112 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $78.53 112 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $78.53 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $78.53 112 coins $178 254 coins 2.26x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $78.53 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $78.53 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) Hidden $78.53 112 coins $430 614 coins 5.47x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $78.53 112 coins $762 1,088 coins 9.70x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $78.53 112 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $78.53 112 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $78.53 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $80.89 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.9% extraordinary 2.0% legendary 0.1% restricted 8.0% consumer 80.0% best hit $2,107 (26.05x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt