--- title: "Short Circuit case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Short Circuit ($156.02) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 88.49% over 72 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/short-circuit rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Short Circuit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/short-circuit) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Short Circuit A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/short-circuit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/short-circuit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/short-circuit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/short-circuit?window=all) Price · $156.02 · 223 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $141.84 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.49% · 72 openings, odds method Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 72 openings · below min 30 days · 72 openings · below min since tracking started · 72 openings · below min 37.0% 170.3% 303.5% **Small sample.** 72 openings and 14.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/short-circuit?window=24h) | 12 | 179.10% ±123.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/short-circuit?window=7d) | 72 | 88.49% ±50.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/short-circuit) | 72 | 88.49% ±50.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/short-circuit?window=all) | 72 | 88.49% ±50.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,521 10,745 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $2,499 3,570 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $1,697 2,424 coins | 12.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 40 | $806 1,152 coins | 14.2% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $225 321 coins | 6.3% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 12.0% | $175 250 coins | 14.8% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $148 211 coins | 9.4% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 25.0% | $84.00 120 coins | 14.8% | 16 | 18.0 | 0.89× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 20.0% | $65.25 93.21 coins | 9.2% | 16 | 14.4 | 1.11× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 25.6% | $27.62 39.45 coins | 5.0% | 18 | 18.4 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) Hidden $156 223 coins $1,697 2,424 coins 10.88x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $159 227 coins $809 1,155 coins 5.10x 2026-11-04 20:30 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $156 223 coins $806 1,152 coins 5.17x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $156 223 coins $806 1,152 coins 5.17x 2026-11-09 23:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=short-circuit) [AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) Hidden $156 223 coins $1,697 2,424 coins 10.88x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) Hidden $156 223 coins $27.62 39.45 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $156 223 coins $175 250 coins 1.12x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $156 223 coins $65.25 93.21 coins 0.42x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $156 223 coins $65.25 93.21 coins 0.42x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) [ryfry](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ryfry) $156 223 coins $27.62 39.45 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $156 223 coins $806 1,152 coins 5.17x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $156 223 coins $175 250 coins 1.12x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $156 223 coins $84.00 120 coins 0.54x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) Hidden $156 223 coins $27.62 39.45 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $156 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $155 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $159 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 49.1% legendary 0.3% classified 50.6% best hit $1,697 (10.88x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt